Thread by @JamesxMyall

This is going around again, so here's some important context to understand the number. The $12,366 does come from an official source (US Current Population Survey) but is almost certainly incorrect. A better source (American Community Survey) puts the increase at $213. #mepolitcs

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1320440490270040065

The ACS is the official source for income & poverty numbers because the sample size is much larger than the CPS. ACS samples ~13,000 people in Maine. The CPS's annual economic supplement includes just ~1,200. So the results are much more prone to error.

ACS data - Median household income in Maine:

2017 = $56,227 (+/- 1,168)
2019 = $58,924 (+/- 1,758)

After adjusting for inflation, 2017 income = $58,711 in 2019 dollars. So an increase of $213.

This appears to be the best source for the CPS numbers. I'm actually struggling to find the official state numbers from the Census Bureau. It looks like they no longer publish the state-level median HH income from the CPS because the ACS is better

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINU…

I don't have the precise margin of error at the 90% confidence interval for the CPS's median household income that the White House is using, but it's probably somewhere in the region of +/- $6,000. After adjusting for inflation, it's possible the $13,000 isn't stat significant.

Biggest check is the "common sense check." I'd be surprised if any Mainer knows any typical family whose household income increased $13,000 (before taxes) in the last 2 years.