Thread by @stilgherrian

Here we go. “Media and the 2020 Election” via the US Studies Centre.

These three journos are all saying that when they’re out in the field in the Midwest and South they’re seeing FAR MORE Trump signs than Biden signs. But then we didn’t see many Hillary signs last time.

The polling shows a record number of undecideds.

Knott is hosing down the idea of “shy Trump voters” not showing in the polls. He says (and others agree) that the Trump supporters seem more than happy to show their colours.

Greber says the Trump voters putting out signs reckon they get abuse for it, so they have a whole grievance thing going on because they feel persecuted. He says they’re being told quietly that their MAGA stuff is supported, by people not wanting to show their hand. Hmmm.

Knott says the polarisation is huge. Dems saying there’s a fascist in the White House. GOP saying Biden will lead a reign of socialism. There’s no way the people in the street can even begin to talk to each other.

I should say all three on the panel and the moderator are all Australian journalist who’ve been working in the US.

Stewart says that until March he thought Trump would win. There seems to be a consensus that the COVID was what turned it. He says women in particular, who generally take care of the kids etc with schools closed, have borne the brunt of it and have swung more against Trump.

Knott says that after the State of the Union and beating off impeachment, Trump squandered his opportunity. Though Daniel says Trump has always controlled the narrative — except with the pandemic. I think she’s right.

Stewart says that every leader who’s handle the virus well, with a strong approach, has been doing well political. And the opposite. (Is that true? Are there counterexamples?)

Stewart was at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania a few hours ago. Trump did three rallies there in one day, after having COVID-19 two weeks ago. A 74yo! Stewart describes the rallies as incredibly effective political theatre.

As an aside @zdaniel is a very effective moderator. But then experienced broadcast journalists and TV presenters know how to do this, right? Seeing a question in the chat getting asked live within seconds is great work.

Greber says Biden seems to be coasting right now and that could be “dangerous” for him.

Hahaha! Knott says that when he was in Florida he was often asked “How are things going for you in Australia?” No, not the COVID. The gun laws. “They took your guns away. You must have so much crime now.” Such a Florida stereotype!

Knott: “Trump is going to be a factor in American life until he dies.”

OK, this USSC panel is wrapping up so let me mention three things. (I don’t work for them but I’ll plus this stuff anyway.)

1. USSC has a post-election panel on Friday week. ussc.edu.au/events/electio… Mind you, everyone else will have one too.

2. I have a post-election podcast recording with @JohnBirmingham next week too, though as always we’ll talk about lost of things — including your TRIGGER WORDS and CONVERSATION TOPICS should you want to use your credits.

3. USSC has a new report “ Red book/Blue book: An Australian guide to the next US administration”, a side-by-side comparison of all the policies for Australian readers. ussc.edu.au/analysis/red-b…

Oh, and a fourth thing. Matthew Knott’s story “‘I was howling in pain’: how falling five storeys from a New York rooftop changed my life” smh.com.au/world/north-am… Yes, he fell out of a window and lived to tell the tale.