1/Alright, now that everyone is paying attention to geothermal, time to discuss one of the more exciting developments that is driving geothermal growth to become a mainstream resource: the emergence of modern, emission free, low temperature binary cycle geothermal plants. THREAD
2/Geothermal power for a long, long time, since at least 1904 when the Larderello steam field produced 10 kW in Tuscany. But for nearly the first 100 years, geothermal was limited to places like Larderello, extremely high temperature reservoirs. power-technology.com/features/oldes…
3/This is because geothermal power used dry steam of flash technology, and to provide power, the fluid had to have enough steam to directly power a turbine. By contrast, binary cycle plants heat a different working fluid for the power conversion process. (from DOE GeoVision)
4/The temperature range for Flash & Dry Steam plants is very high, 400+F, because at typical geothermal pressures, that’s what it takes to get a meaningful amount of steam to flow to the turbine. By contrast, binary cycle plants can operate down to 200F. (from GeoVision)
5/Geologically, there are very few places on the planet where you can reach 400+F at realistic drilling depths, ~3 miles. But binary cycle temperatures can be found nearly anywhere at those depths.
6/There is enough heat at binary cycle temperatures (<200C) to power the entire US, over 1,000 GW in just the shallowest 3 miles alone. By contrast, there are hardly any remaining high temperature resources to develop. nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/…
7/So if we were just limited to unique, high temperature resources, geothermal in the US would have been done long ago. But new binary cycle technology opened the door for growth. 90% of US geothermal developed since 2000 have been binary cycle systems. eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
8/Like a lot of innovations, binary cycle plants are the result of decades of public and private R&D, led by DOE and companies like Ormat. BTW, anyone who thinks you can’t make money in hardtech, geothermal, or climate should check out Ormat’s performance.
9/And there are many more benefits to binary cycle plants. The geothermal fluid is cycled through a heat exchanger and then reinjected, so they are emission free. Binary cycle plants have extremely low life cycle emissions. energy.gov/sites/prod/fil…
10/A lot of folks picture flash plants when geothermal is mentioned, which can have emissions. But modern geothermal is emission free binary cycle plants. No steam plumes, no emissions.
How it started: How it's going:
11/This is a really important point because a lot of regulators don’t differentiate between the types of geothermal. In CA, you can find regulators, CCAs, etc. that ding geothermal for emissions, even though modern binary plants don’t have any.
12/And the prize truly is huge. @jessejenkins worked last year with a student to outline how we could start drilling these resources today and get on a learning curve that would ultimately translate to 100s of GWs of geothermal in the US.
13/And this is very possible because binary cycle power plants have solved half the puzzle, effective power conversion for low temperature geothermal. Now it’s just a matter of how fast can we bring drilling costs down.
14/We are just now figuring out how to get projects kickstarted to get on that learning curve. But importantly, this is technology that is deployable today already. We don’t need some breakthrough in drilling technology to rapidly expand geothermal.
15/So in summary, a big part of why geothermal is finally having its day is that modern, emission free, binary cycle power plants have opened up an entirely new class of low temperature resource and after two decades the tech is mature and ready to scale.
16/Binary cycle geothermal:
-Opens up an entirely new class of resource
-Is emission free
-Technologically mature
Now we just need to deploy, deploy, deploy. Time to open up geothermal’s potential. END
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1/Ok y’all, this @jasonbordoff piece is just fantastic. His boldest, and in my opinion accurate, claim is that petrostates will be winners of climate change policy. So let’s unpack that with a THREAD. foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/05/cli…
2/The first principle you need to understand is the nature of current oil production and reserves:
Big Oil (Majors) makes the most headlines, but National Oil Companies (NOCs) have the most oil. Big Oil only controls ~10% of global oil reserves. webstore.iea.org/download/direc…
3/And beyond that, not all reserves are equal. Check out WoodMac’s estimate on breakevens by resource. Notice something? The VAST MAJORITY of low cost oil is controlled by NOCs. woodmac.com/reports/upstre…
1/Emissions calculations for different techs have major impact on legislation, regulation, and customer perception, especially for geothermal, but are often not well understood. So today, a THREAD on operational and life cycle emissions, technologies, and how it impacts policy.
2/Some definitions. When we think about emissions for technologies, two common categories are operational emissions, just the emissions released at the source during operations, and life cycle analysis (LCA) emissions, which are all of the emissions in the entire process.
3/This graphic for cars is useful. The operational emissions are what come out of the tailpipe, but the LCA emissions are everything. Mining, manufacturing, fuels, recycling, land use, etc.
1/This excellent NYT piece covers the shift in decarbonization to gas as coal gets phased out.
We’ve been arguing for so long about if gas can be a “bridge fuel”, we’ve missed the point. It’s already been a bridge fuel. But, a bridge to what? THREAD nytimes.com/2020/07/06/bus…
2/How long have we been talking about the “bridge fuel”? Well check out comments from the 1992 Global Warming and the Earth Summit from none other the Kenneth Lay, yes that Kenneth Lay, of Enron fame:
3/This narrative of “bridge fuel” was seized on for decades, championed by folks like Aubrey McClendon (for the uninitiated, Aubrey is to fracking as Elon is to EVs) in conjunction with environmentalists like the Sierra Club as recently as 2010. science.time.com/2012/02/02/exc…
1/It has come to my attention that not everyone is aware of the incredible leadership Houston has shown on climate recently. This ain’t your 1980s Houston anymore. So inspired by @drvox, here is a roundup of some the great climate work from @HoustonTX:
2/First up renewable energy purchases: Houston will be 100% powered by renewable energy by 2025:
3/This is part of a long history of renewable energy purchases. Here is a notable one from 2013 that made Houston the largest municipal purchaser of renewable energy at the time: c40.org/blog_posts/hou…
1/The new drilling rig count numbers today show the historic reduction continuing, but also an increasing divergence of the fate of oil and natural gas. This has important implications on pricing, and as a result the clean energy transition, so, a THREAD.
2/In terms of the clean energy transition, oil mostly impacts adoption of transportation technologies while mostly impacts the electricity sector (simplifying a bit), so you need to understand them separately to evaluate the impacts.
3/Oil and natural gas prices used to be correlated. This interesting chart from @EIAgov shows strong positive correlation between oil and gas throughout the 2000s, followed by essentially no correlation through the 2010s. eia.gov/finance/market…
1/Ok, time for another Wonky Thoughts About What the Oil Price Crash Means for the Clean Energy Transitionᵀᴹ, this time with a focus on gasoline demand, refining, and what it can teach us about EV adoption. THREAD
2/Shelter-in-place means people aren’t driving as much. That predictably has made gasoline demand drop like a rock, which has made prices drop like a rock too. Check out RBOB gas futures, down 70% (!!) y/y.
3/But here’s the interesting part: gasoline and diesel are moving in different directions. The “crack spread”, basically the profit a refiner makes on the product, was ~$20/bbl for BOTH gasoline and diesel at the beginning of the year.