Share this page!

Trinh Profile picture
Twitter logo
27 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Ready? UNCTAD investment trends monitor & shows the following:
*FDI down -49% in first half 2020, biggest declines in Europe and the US
*There were negative inflows to European economies & flows to the US fell to USD69bn or -56%
*Flows to Africa fell -28%, LatAm -25% & Asia -12%.
Let's look by country of H1 2020 vs H1 2019:

Best is Germany of +15%, followed by Mexico of +5% & China of -4%.
Developing Asia is the most resilient, mostly because of China & specifically flows to HK. By sector, it was mostly e-commerce & ICT. Korea fell by -34%; Southeast Asia fell w/ Vietnam falling the least of -16% to 6.8bn. The Philippines & Thailand had growth but from a low base.
FDI to India fell but some bright spots such as the digital sectors and also deals in infrastructure & energy.
China continued to invest in Africa. That said, flows to Africa declined. Nigeria got a non-oil deal w/ China Communications Construction Co taking a majority stake in Lekki Port Enterprise, deep-sea freight transport firm for 233m.

China is the #1 source of FDI for Ethiopia.
FDI is the #1 source for external financing, followed by remittances, for developing economies and the fact that they fell in H1 is worrying.
You can read the paper here: next one is mid-Jan 2021. I usually read this fresh off the press (just came out today!!!). This is one of my favorite organizations for papers & data bases. @UNCTAD

unctad.org/system/files/o…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Trinh

Trinh Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
28 Oct
Firms move to Vietnam as a China labor cost arbitrage trade. Tariffs + another cost to the equation. Trump doesn’t care about textile moving from China to VN. He wanted access for American services (financials) & limit China rise in tech & vertical integration of value chain.
People write these stories all the time about how firms shifting to Vietnam is a failure of Trump policy. US wages are expensive. No way it’s competitive in labor intensive manufacturing. Americans in trade negotiations want champions to thrive & that’s high tech & services
I met Obama negotiators for TPP & basically US admin people. Same idea. TPP is all about market access as for the Americans they don’t want Asian style FTAs (tariff reduction only & non tariff barriers up) but US style & that means investment & that means US banks/services etc.
Read 9 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
28 Oct
Ready? Here we go: a comparison of the USA, Europe & the UK. New cases per millions. Look at that. Europe went from doing so well in the summer to massive explosion of cases.

US cases remained steady in comparison, still high. US suppression also not as severe & state dependent Image
How did Europe get here? Very simple, it had a pretty relaxing summer & judging from my friends going about holidaying w/o masks in groups basking in that beautiful Mediterrean sea while Americans bicker over masks etc, I knew, I knew this was coming & it's gonnna be explosive. Image
Btw, Europe had a much more severe lock-down that the US in Q2 2020. So that had social & economic costs while still plenty of lives lost anyway.

After the severe lock-down, it had a summer that was nice, sunny days, normalization etc.

Only to be here in Q4. Explosive cases. Image
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
27 Oct
Good morning, seems like Biden transition from oil comment is causing some to consider. We're basically 5 days from the election & I can't wait for this to be over.

We had Korea GDP & it shows the following about the peninsula: having a diversified economy helps w/ resilience.
Similar to a portfolio, u want a diversified economy. And so South Korea didn't just tame the virus (although a flare up end of Q3 did cause weak domestic demand) but it also has a little bit of everything to help. Electronics + bio carried manu & exports while industrials weak.
A lesson that economies like Thailand should learn: too dependent on tourism & when that crashes, your economy has double digits dip. Too dependent on domestic demand w/ not enough exports like Indonesia, the Philippines and India = excess weakness when u suppress mobility.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
23 Oct
Yep, that is a key take-away. He's going to make energy more expensive by moving away from fossil fuel. Germany did this & we can use it as a case study. Phased out coal & nuclear & increased renewables, total generation decline so imports more natural gas or 71% of energy supply
Germany's choice: more renewables, less nuclear (actually pretty clean & accidents rare but highly publicised kind of like airplane crash vs car crahses) & defo less coal.

But guess what? It IMPORTS more FOSSIL FUEL by doing this & increase dependency on Russia natural gas.
Germany's choice:

*By 2022, close the remaining nuclear power plants (clean & cheap source of energy)
*By 2030, rely on renewable energy sources for 65% of total.

Let's look at the facts!
Read 10 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
23 Oct
I'm watching the debate & so far the moderator is being pretty fair & the whole shut-down thing is great.

🍿🍿🍿
Who is she? She's great! I think she's way more fair than that other moderator at the other debate. I'm cheering for the moderator! :-) Trump has more self-control & on point than the last debate & it's so far very civil.
Biden says Rudy Giuliani is a Russian pawn? Wuat??? Seriously! He's losing the plot.
Read 39 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
22 Oct
Good morning, let's read this paper together:

Biden's Economic Agenda: The Long Run Impacts of Its Regulation, Taxes & Spending.

Conclusion: Pretty bad for growth! Reduces employment, capital stock per person, GDP per capita & real consumption!

hoover.org/sites/default/…
What does Joe Biden propose??

1) Reverse 2017 tax cuts & increase taxation & high-income households & pass through entities

2) Reverse regulatory reforms & set new environmental standards

3) Create/expand subsidies for, esp, health insurance & renewable energy.
They say that more regulations affect resource usage by regulated industries & new taxes distort the markets for capital & labor.

So? Will be 4.9 million few employed individuals, $2.6trn less GDP & 1.5trn less consumption. Median household in 2030 will be $6,500 less.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @Trinhnomics