Tom Bonier Profile picture
27 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
15,179,420 Americans who didn't vote in 2016 have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election.

The Democratic lead among these surge voters is almost double their lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.
In Florida, 1,508,165 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.

Registered Dems have an 11.7% advantage among these surge voters, almost triple their 4.3% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.
In Arizona, 468,957 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.

Registered Dems have a 10.4% advantage among these surge voters, almost double their 5.4% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.
In Iowa, 133,515 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.

Registered Dems have a 22.7% advantage among these surge voters, compared to their 17.7% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.
Sorry to act like a bot with all of these in the same format. The irony is I typed each out individually when I should have just cut and paste!

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More from @tbonier

25 Oct
I tweet a lot about the youth vote and not much about seniors, so here's a thread digging into what will likely be a crucial voting bloc this year.

In '16 seniors accounted for 25% of all ballots cast. As of now they account for 39% of all early votes cast - 20M votes.
Almost 3M of these early voting seniors didn't vote in the '16 election, and 472,195 are voting for the first time in their life. This surge is being driven largely by white, college educated seniors, who have seen their vote share increase by 8pts over this same point in '16.
This is somewhat wild, turnout among college educated white seniors is already at 78% of their final total vote in the 2016 general, while current early vote turnout among non-college white seniors is only at 49% of their overall 2016 turnout.
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
In which two Republican accounts with substantial numbers of followers incorrectly claim that the youth vote is down in the early vote. Here's the truth...
Voters under the age of 30 now account for a larger share of the electorate than they did at this point in '16. And that's while older voters are surging on their own.
It's not just a youth surge though, the younger voters who are fueling this massive turnout increase are more likely to be Dems. At this point Dems have a lead of almost 30 pts in modeled partisanship, up from 21 pts at this point in 2016.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
I've gotten a lot of questions as to why I think our TargetEarly site shows a GOP lead, while we've seen huge turnout in Dem areas. Indulge me for a few tweets to explain why I believe the early vote in Texas is indicative of a state very much in play for Joe Biden.
Look at the modeled party ID of the early vote in TX. The most important note here, this isn't a model of candidate support, but rather generic partisanship, a metric that isn't generally favorable to Dems in TX. Dems trail by 10.8% so far there.
But compare that to 2018 at this same point in time in TX. Dems trailed in the EV by 14.1%, meaning the 2020 EV electorate is 3.3% more Democratic than the 2018 electorate, which in the end resulted in a highly competitive US Senate election. That's the first good sign for Biden.
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
I've tweeted quite a bit about the surge among younger voters in the early vote. But here's a new one - a senior surge. Of the 5.7M early voters who didn't vote in 2016, the largest group is voters over the age of 65 with over 1.5M having voted already.
In Florida this senior surge is especially pronounced, as they account for 39% of ballots cast by non-2016 voters. That is incredible.
What's more, these senior surge voters skew Democratic. It's almost as if watching 160,000 people in your age group die from a deadly pandemic is a motivating factor to replace the guy in charge.
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
Our update went live last night. We saw a slight turn towards Dems in OH and WI in the reported AVEV data, and MI appears to have generally stayed the same.
targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html
There's still evidence that the partisan model rollup in these states is overly Republican. If you look at the model distribution, you'll see that there is a cluster of voters at the low end of the score (GOP) but no such cluster at the Dem end.
That said, the model does a good job of rank ordering voters in terms of likely partisanship, an improvement upon the prior partisanship score.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
Tomorrow we're releasing an update to our TargetEarly site, impacting the modeled partisanship classifications in MI, OH, and WI, improving their accuracy. I'll explain the process and rationale in a brief thread here, for anyone who is interested. targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html
I've suspected for a while now that the generic partisan models weren't doing as good of a job as we'd like accurately capturing the generic partisanship of voters in those states. To be fair, those are tough states to model, with no party reg and relatively homogeneous.
To assess the models, first I looked at the party models in the context of the 2016 electorate. In MI the model was 8 points more GOP than the election outcome, 7 pts in OH, and 10 pts in WI. That's compared against the Clinton-Trump margin in each state.
Read 8 tweets

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