Thread by @LizSzabo

Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab is giving a free online lecture through MIT about covid-19. The decline of covid-19 cases in the summer may have misled people into thinking it had gone away. It didn't. The decline may have shown the "seasonality" of virus. web.mit.edu/webcast/biolog…

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab is doing a pilot study to test blood, looking for antibodies, to reconstruct introduction of virus into U.S. He asks, "Could we have early warning system for viruses like we have for hurricanes?"

web.mit.edu/webcast/biolog…

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab says widespread antibody testing can be a better way to know what's going on in an outbreak than PCR testing, providing slightly faster answers.

web.mit.edu/webcast/biolog…

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab explains difference between genetic/protein tests (PCR, antigen tests done with nasal swab) and antibody tests (blood tests).

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab: "Before we ever detected a single case of coronavirus in NYC, there were probably tens of thousands of infections." Says we need equivalent of weather/hurricane forecasts for viruses to avoid "going into every flu season blindfolded."

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab compares benefits/limitations of viral tests vs antibody tests. Testing for virus catches people while they're still transmitting, but will miss people. Good for surveillance when testing is frequent.

web.mit.edu/webcast/biolog…

LIVE: Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab: Antibody testing lags behind viral testing, picking up coronavirus cases 10-14 days after infection. Advantages of antibody testing for surveillance is that it misses fewer cases, can spot outbreaks, as opposed to stopping all cases.

Actually, this is only sort of live. There's a time delay between when epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab says something in his lecture and when I tweet it, because I'm constantly being interrupted.

Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab: Advantage of antibody testing for surveillance is that antibodies persist in your blood for at least months. So a test for the virus may turn negative once your body clears it; an antibody test would still be positive.

web.mit.edu/webcast/biolog…

Epidemiologist @michaelmina_lab says combining PCR testing/antibody testing can help you figure out if a nursing home outbreak is on the decline or about to explode. If 5% of residents test positive, but 55% of them have antibodies, that means outbreak is going down.