The idea that you can't learn anything from the early vote is silly. Can you predict who is going to win? Absolutely not. But we have answered two very important broad questions already by assessing the early vote:
1) Will turnout be high?
The answer here is clearly yes. We've sailed past 2016 early vote totals, with a week remaining. Yes, a big part of this is due to the pandemic. But the fact that 1 in 4 of these early voters didn't vote in '16 points towards very high overall turnout.
The answer here is clearly yes. We've sailed past 2016 early vote totals, with a week remaining. Yes, a big part of this is due to the pandemic. But the fact that 1 in 4 of these early voters didn't vote in '16 points towards very high overall turnout.
2) Are Democrats energized?
Yes. In some states, core Dem constituencies have already surpassed their TOTAL turnout in the '16 election. We not only know Dems are showing up, from the early vote we can assess relative intensity among subgroups.
Yes. In some states, core Dem constituencies have already surpassed their TOTAL turnout in the '16 election. We not only know Dems are showing up, from the early vote we can assess relative intensity among subgroups.
In the end, the assessment of the early vote leaves us with two very important unanswered questions: will Republicans be able to match Democratic intensity, and how much crossover voting will take place? In the end we'll have to wait until next Tuesday to answer those questions.
And as an important side note, we will have a rough sense by next Tuesday of just how deep of a hole Trump will have to dig himself out of on Election Day, and we'll be able to place that in context of the remaining non-voting electorate.
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