In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM states.
Although we know that Trump is likely to better in the EDay vote than the early vote virtually everywhere, there's not *that* huge a difference between the Sumter voters who have voted so far and those who haven't...
Among the 72,695 Sumter voters who have cast ballots, they break down:
58% R
25% D
17% NPA/Other
Here's the breakdown of the 32,917 Sumter registrants who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
53% R
21% D
26% NPA/Other
58% R
25% D
17% NPA/Other
Here's the breakdown of the 32,917 Sumter registrants who *haven't* yet cast ballots:
53% R
21% D
26% NPA/Other
So, I'm adjusting my Sumter line. We're now likely to see 80k+ Sumter ballots reported shortly after 7pm on 11/3.
If Trump is winning them by 63%-36% or less, that would be a terrible sign for his chances of winning FL/reelection (likely needs 67%+ in the final Sumter count).
If Trump is winning them by 63%-36% or less, that would be a terrible sign for his chances of winning FL/reelection (likely needs 67%+ in the final Sumter count).
This is my lone exception to the rule against hazardously over-interpreting batches of early results alone, and it's only because such an extreme % of Sumter's total vote is cast in advance of Election Day and counted quickly.
Personally, I think it's more likely we see Trump win the first batch of 80k+ votes by more like 66%-33%, which might put him on track for something like 68%-70% overall in Sumter and a very close race statewide in FL.
But, we'll see.
But, we'll see.
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