Breathtaking: statewide, Texas just surpassed 80% of its total 2016 votes cast, leading the nation. And there's still more than a week of voting to go.
Also, tbh the dropbox issue was never going to have that big an impact on turnout b/c a relatively tiny share of TX voters is eligible to vote by mail to begin with.
You know what will have a big impact on TX's outcome? Turnout in the heavily Hispanic border counties, which is currently at ~32% of registered voters compared to 50%+ in TX's major metro suburbs.
To be clear, 32% at this point isn't terrible by historical standards, including 2016/2018. It just underscores how much untapped potential there is for Dems in that region of the state.

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More from @Redistrict

27 Oct
Tfw you've been devouring hundreds of district-level polls for decades and everyone has suddenly woken up to how instructive they can be.
The truth is, the majority of presidential race polling is conducted at the *district,* not state or national level.

Most of it is never made public by parties/PACs, but is of high quality b/c it's conducted to make critical resource allocation decisions in House races.
Four years ago, these district-level polls showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in heavily white working-class districts (see below), but many people overlooked them.
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
On one hand, TX isn't (and was never) poised to be a "tipping point" for 270 EVs. On the other, even a modest investment in several smaller, low-turnout TX media markets could now determine which way TX tips.
Highest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Collin (Trump +17 in '16): 48%
2. Williamson (Trump +10): 48%
3. Denton (Trump +20): 47%
4. Comal (Trump +50): 46%
5. Brazoria (Trump +25): 44%
Lowest TX early voting turnout so far (as share of RVs, counties w/ 100k+ registrants only):

1. Webb (Clinton +52 in '16): 21%
2. Bell (Trump +15): 27%
3. Cameron (Clinton +33): 29%
4. El Paso (Clinton +43): 30%
5. Hidalgo (Clinton +41): 31%
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Here are my updated demographic splits in average crosstabs of live-interview national polls, w/ new @QuinnipiacPoll thrown into the October mix.

A few breathtaking splits:
- Biden now +25 w/ women
- Biden now +10 w/ seniors
In my view, the biggest "tell" Trafalgar etc. are off the mark? Private, district-level GOP polling conducted to make spending decisions backs up what we're seeing in averages of live-interview polls: Trump doing terribly w/ college whites/women into October.
The only group where we're seeing improvement in Trump's margin vs. '16? Hispanic voters.

Today, live-interview average has Trump down 27 points, vs. 38 points per @UpshotNYT's average of final '16 polls.
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
More people have now early voted in TX than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in TX in 2016.
(Disclaimer: this suggests voter interest/intensity is way higher than in the past and we're headed for massive turnout - as we are everywhere - but not much beyond that.)
TX early/mail votes cast so far in 2020, as share of total 2016 votes cast:

Clinton-won counties: 60%
Trump-won counties: 59%

Another reminder you shouldn't read a partisan advantage from huge turnout. Both parties' bases highly motivated.
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
Brief thread: here's why I don't put a ton of stock into the *overall* pro-R registration trend in FL from '16 to '20. Take the 33 least populous of FL's 67 counties, which are mostly rural and located in the north/panhandle (aka the Deep South)...
In November 2016, these 33 counties collectively had a narrow 42%-40% GOP voter registration advantage. But here's how they *voted:*

Trump: 369,045 (67%)
Clinton: 170,871 (31%)

Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes.
Fast forward to 2020: the final data shows the GOP voter registration advantage in these 33 counties has grown to 48%-32%.

These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R.
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:

GOP: +344,465
Dem: +197,821
NPA/Other: +197,818

Compare to the same period in '16:

GOP: +274,207
Dem: +307,961
NPA/Other: +220,857

Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants):

37% Dem
36% GOP
27% NPA/Other

61.5% White
17.3% Hispanic
13.4% Black
7.8% Other

Compare to Nov. 2016:

38% Dem
35% GOP
27% NPA/Other

64.2% White
15.7% Hispanic
13.4% Black
6.7% Other
Read 6 tweets

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