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Angus Johnston Profile picture
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28 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
The lead story in Omaha's daily paper right now is Trump's abandoning of thousands of elderly supporters in the cold, without shelter, miles from their cars, after last night's rally. omaha.com/news/local/gov…
Not the kind of news you want to be making in a congressional district that could swing the electoral college six days before voting ends.
Also, fun fact: Omaha is the primary media market for much of western Iowa. Trump won Iowa by nine points last time, and is essentially tied there in polls right now.
Since folks are wondering about the Omaha rally: Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allocate Electoral College votes by congressional district, and Biden is running ahead of Trump in NE-2, which includes Omaha.
And yes, the whole election could come down to that district: If Biden holds the Clinton states and flips MI, WI, and AZ, that's 269, an EC tie, and a probable second Trump term. Adding NE-2 makes it 270 and a Biden victory.

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More from @studentactivism

Angus Johnston Profile picture
28 Oct
A robust and comprehensive new Voting Rights Act would do more to hobble the GOP in the years to come than killing the filibuster or adding DC and PR as states, simply because minority rule is so central to their electoral strategy.
If we were to simply let people vote and let their votes determine who holds power, the Republican Party would experience an implosion that would likely take them a decade or more to recover from.
And yes, SCOTUS is a barrier, and no, statehood, filibuster reform, and voting rights aren't an either-or (either-or-or) proposition. But it's underappreciated how dramatic the effects of simply implementing basic democratic procedures would be to dismantling Republican power.
Read 5 tweets
Angus Johnston Profile picture
28 Oct
I'm seeing some magical thinking about circumstances in which Trump or SCOTUS could steal the election, specifically folks saying that if the Electoral College is close, it's categorically doom for Biden. I think that's a huge oversimplification, and a dangerous one.
SCOTUS was able to rig the election in 2000 because Florida was essentially a coin flip. Give Gore ten thousand more election-night votes, and he'd have been president. Period.
Are there states where we need to worry about even a one or two point Biden lead this time? Yes. But those are specific states where we need to worry for specific reasons.
Read 4 tweets
Angus Johnston Profile picture
27 Oct
If the Dems win the presidency, which they are very likely to do, and win the Senate, which they are very likely to do, then they will have a series of decisions to make. And the GOP has made it absolutely crystal clear yet again tonight what happens if they choose poorly.
All the Dems need to do in 2021 is to embrace and protect democracy. That's it. If they do that, the voters will do the rest. If they fail to do that, the collapse of the system will soon be complete.
There's a lot of people in my mentions saying "what makes you think the Dems will do the right thing?" But I didn't predict that they'll do the right thing. I predicted what will happen if they don't.
Read 6 tweets
Angus Johnston Profile picture
25 Oct
Biden high-up signs on to plan to limit SCOTUS justices to 18-year terms. Let's take a look at what that would mean in practice.
The bill provides for SCOTUS appointments in the first and third years of each term, and mandates that the most senior justice on the Court retire when such an appointment creates a 10-justice Court, but mandatory retirements don't apply to justices appointed prior to the Act.
So if Biden wins and Barrett is confirmed, Biden would get a new Justice in 2021, making the Court 6-4 GOP. He'd then get another in 2023, making the Court 6-5 GOP, but only if Breyer stayed alive and didn't retire.
Read 7 tweets
Angus Johnston Profile picture
24 Oct
Just stopped in to take a look at the early voting site at West Side High School on 101st and Amsterdam—at 3pm, five hours after the polls open, the line was well over half a mile long.
No line at all for absentee ballot drop-off, though, and the table and drop-off box are outside in the open air. So if you're in NYC and have an absentee ballot, voting that way should be quick, easy, and safe.
BTW, today is the first day of early voting here in New York, and a gorgeous, warm Saturday afternoon. I fully expect the lines to get a lot shorter over the coming week. (Also, far fewer early voting sites than there will be on Election Day.)
Read 8 tweets
Angus Johnston Profile picture
24 Oct
I've seen several people in recent days saying that Biden is only leading Trump because of the pandemic, but the fact is, he lead the polling in the primary pretty much wire-to-wire, and has been leading Trump head-to-head since long before he was nominated.
I have my own theories as to why Biden was able to nab the nomination, and why he's doing so well now, despite him not being my preferred candidate, but any such theory should probably start by conceding that "my preferred candidate" and "a strong candidate" aren't synonyms.
Which isn't to handwave away Biden's weaknesses as a candidate. They're real, they're not small, and they're a big part of why he struggled in the early primaries. His victory there wasn't foreordained.
Read 4 tweets

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