We are bad at dealing with ambiguity and its known to get worse when there's money on the table. Typically we can take better risks by using a pencil, not our gut, to weigh what a chance is worth. More times than none we over estimate our ability to get it right,worse 4 startups
Perceptive value is a powerful construct, easy to understand, but excruciatingly difficult to use in our daily lives. So it's the value of an outcome X the likely hood it will happen. Seems simple enough, but is it?
Let's look at the low & high. If the fine for littering is 100 & u have a 1/10 chance of being caught as u throw your wrapper outside, right after ur purchase. The expected cost of breaking the law is 10. Do it enough times & eventually get caught that's what it'll cost u.
Reversed if there's a one in five chance you will close your round for a million dollars, the expected value of the pursuit is $200,000. U continue to run after bad pursuits based on ur perception of outcomes. They are no longer hunches if the odds are described properly.
And yet we peg our risks, often overestimating just how much the value of a fine really ends up being.

And we peg our possible gains, usually overestimating how much that opportunity is worth.

In matters of data look at the small details. Small data matters vs gut feel.
Founders are blindsided by optimism and the pursuit of winning, most of it is needed to get ahead in the dog eat dog world. But it's unforgivable to have a reality distortion field that over indexes on hustle vs outcomes. People who fuel off outcomes go further faster
Those who are award winners & over index for hustle/pr & don't sit down to compute their risk reward outcomes continue to train their brain to lie to them on the value of the outcome. Most use favorable odds for things beyond their control & under estimate odds for 1s in control
Rare breed that can balance the scale achieve success 1ce execution is matched with their ability to distill through this.The best way to understand why we do what we do is to take a look at Ellsberg's paradox. It may guide u to look at the why & avoid it. It's not a given though
We respond to what we keep track of. Too bad we're not keeping track of daily failures, bad hiring decisions, refusing first money in, our ability to predict bugs. You can only fix what u measure and can measure what u track. Due to our biased approach on outcomes we track wrong
We need to train our selves to track better. Lotteries of all sorts grab our attention and change our agenda. Don't give in to lottery thinking for things u can't control. You have better odds of being hit by lightening on most days. Track, measure, value re calibrate till u win.
In matters of startups no sense arguing over the design of your flag when u haven't focused on deciding what it stands for first. Flag is noise in a world where ur driving principles or vision/mission is the signal. Focus on signaling vs noise. Signals can be debated noise can't.
We are a species that can willingly change things.Opinions, looks, decisions & attitudes. But only when we want to. Hardest part is wanting the change. Train your want cycles and you will win more frequently and on a much grander scale.U must want for eg to fix ur estimation bias
You can also want to look the other way when confronted with choices needing hard decisions not aligned with where u need to be going. Take them & fail fast vs being a failurepreneur. @rebootdude @jehan_ara @FaizaYousuf @CodeGirlsKhi @TheNestiO @SaadGH @YusufJan @Ash_Kalim

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More from @faizansiddiqi

27 Sep
The future is not female. The present is. The wrong question to ask is "how to get more women in tech" that would imply that some how "men" are the ones giving women power. The ask cant be to have more women take (corp/exec/founder roles)esp with the current mental disposition
The view has to change first. In history no ones given up power by choice. Not much different for companies. Power has to be taken, it can be taken when we all as society/ecosystems amplify the work, women executives & founders are doing across industries. Wont happen over night.
But we have stop over-indexing on male founders. The disposition has to change from thinking women have to seek permission or join some 1 else's band wagon vs launching their own. This narrative changes with us, you dont need to give any one permission, only encouragement
Read 15 tweets
26 Sep
Problems worth solving is a concept worth spending time on. Building an other app for chatting is a trivial problem, 1 likely not startup worthy. The key is to think about the process of finding problems worth solving. If it has a low barrier to entry 4 U it does for others 2.
Dont chase the same rabbit as all others, find things that from the outside in are extremely challenging to scale but likely can. It might be better to focus on something very hard at first sight, something unsexy and messy. All the world's problems if looked at from a tech lens
Will continue to make u think that all problems are technical problems. Just like we all read the same blogs, follow the same popular tech news we continue to be a curated version of the world's technical output. This makes us shortsighted in terms of the problems of this world.
Read 13 tweets
20 Sep
Living in the present solves for the present, project X yrs out and think does my idea today build out a company?Build whats missing is a good add-on to, "build what others have missed".Randomly thinking of ideas alone, typically tends to lend to your filter bubbles and biases.
Entrepreneurship is some thing you learn by doing. If you are in uni, stop obsessing about taking a course. Instead find some thing that lets you try out doing some thing.Learn about how to come up with viable organic ideas that are not self evident by working with those who have
Messy and tedious are your friends, un sexy and boring as your scale. Find things others stay away from because they are perceived to be dull. Every thing doesn't have to be software dependent or related either, there are great opportunities in other areas too. Dont be misguided.
Read 24 tweets
19 Sep
To have a home run, the best way to come up with a startup idea is to look at every day items their nuances and the annoyance factors associated with them. Then see if reducing the friction and scaling it are practicable. If so, you have market product fit. For example
Every one has white space behind them for the billions of zoom hours of meetings that are happening. Why isn't there some one doing a trackable background product with in call ad displays for zoom. Talk about captive audiences? Likely not easy else every one would do it.
That's one way to look at the boring and the mundane and explore other people's rails to build a new product or service. There are 100s of such things hiding in plain sight that could potentially have reward at scale for the founders who crack the but. Similarly for Twitter
Read 9 tweets
14 Sep
I read this with interest, it is also indicative of the fact that the ecosystem is slowly getting there. But what every one seems to be missing that the free report from the article is a MAC(Mutual Admiration Club) because it shies away from asking the million $ Question
The question being, how many of these VCs, or Angels actually operate being domiciled out of Pakistan? Whilst I whole heartedly agree that regulations make it tough to near impossible to setup efficient structures quickly, all these cheerleaders of Pakistani talent + Startups
from the Valley to DC to Holland to Ireland to Singapore and beyond are and continue to encourage most if not all startups to incorporate outside of Pakistan. So Much for misguided front end Optics of Promoting Pakistan and Pakistani companies. Why is this important now?
Read 18 tweets
13 Sep
What we seem to be missing is a "safe space" to incubate, accelerate, discuss, be encouraged about starting new businesses. There is no joy nor any ease of doing biz when it comes to launching some thing new. There is no If then else statement on which type of incorporation to do
or which type of company to register, how to go about securing your name, or what taxes will apply to you in either, no cheat sheet of inputting your assumption of revenue to get a glimpse of the future taxable state as a person an AOP or Company, or even a sole proprietorship
Starting up is hard, starting up with out any back end understand or access to info about simple stuff, like company setup, taxation, applying for NTN numbers and having to deal with any kind of regulator even before u launch, just at the idea state is an off putting experience.
Read 32 tweets

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