As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations once again rise across the United States so, inevitably, will deaths. But there is reason to hope that we will not see the devastating fatality rates of the initial spring surge. A brief thread.
Earlier we shared a post highlighting the relationship between cases and hospitalizations. Here we take a closer look at the relationship between hospitalizations and COVID-19 deaths. covidtracking.com/blog/deaths-ar…
In the past week, US states and territories have reported all-time highs in new cases of COVID-19. An alarming trend which we expect to be reflected in hospitalization data. But "another NYC" is far from inevitable.
The gap that opens up between the hospitalization and fatality curves illustrates one of the most encouraging pieces of news about the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.
Improvements in hospitalized patient care and overall patient outcomes are a welcome shift in COVID-19 news. It's also important to reiterate that if US outbreaks continue to worsen, overburdened hospitals could lead to a reversal in these trends.
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Our daily update is published. States reported a record number of cases—88.5k—and 1.3 million tests. 46k people are hospitalized. The death toll was 1049.
The number of people per capita hospitalized in the Midwest has now surpassed its own spring peak, as well as any time in the West.
The per-capita case numbers in the upper Midwest are extremely high.
Our weekly update is published. The United States set a new weekly record for reported cases, breaking 500K for the first time in the pandemic. We see no evidence that any state in the current surge has reached its peak and begun to decline. covidtracking.com/blog/weekly-up…
The rise in cases cannot be attributed to an increase in tests; 47 of the 50 states, along with D.C., have seen cases rise faster than reported tests since October 1. 25 states have set records for new cases this week.
The average number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 rose to 42,621, an increase of about 40% from one month ago. Given the current trends, and what the past has taught us, we should expect deaths to continue to rise in the coming weeks.
Our daily update is published. States reported 1 million tests, 79k cases, 45k currently hospitalized. The COVID-19 death toll was 1,025 today.
Currently hospitalized figures peaked in 13 states today.
In the absence of national COVID-19 data standards, the state data we compile is not always comparable. Comparing test positivity across states and territories without considering the unit of the denominator will not yield useful results. We explain here: covidtracking.com/blog/test-posi…
As COVID-19 cases rise across the United States, claims are circulating that case increases are (mostly or entirely) due to expanded testing, and do not indicate a spike in infections. The data does not support this conclusion. covidtracking.com/blog/cases-mat…
Testing does affect case counts, but testing cannot account for the case surge we’re seeing. Since the beginning of October, the seven-day average for new cases has risen 61% , while tests are only up 14% in the same period.
But cases aren’t the only metric we can use to measure outbreaks. As we’ve seen throughout the year, when COVID-19 cases go up, hospitalizations also rise. The number of patients currently hospitalized with COVID-19 is up 40% since October 1.
Our daily update is published. States reported 1.05 million tests, 73k cases, and 44,212 people hospitalized. The reported death toll was 931.
Only 3 states have seen hospitalizations fall since October 1 (CA, GA, HI).
We made a major improvement to our Florida data. We switched our TotalTestResults field to use a newly posted timeseries of testing encounters. This makes FL's data more comparable with other states—and captures a more comprehensive view of FL's testing utilization and strategy.