Thread. I don’t do much commenting on polls, leaving that to experts like @NateSilver538 @LarrySabato & @WisVoter. A whole bunch of polls have dropped in the last 24 hours, mostly showing Biden with a solid lead. Some still hint at ways Trump could make this a close race.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1321543748455727110
But I wonder. If turnout nationally will be up as much as many seem to think (@TargetSmart, a Democratic polling firm, thinks about 16 million non-voters in 2016 have cast ballots already this year), is Trump likely to get most of them? It seems unlikely. Another thing....
Republican voters, warned off early mail voting by Trump & waiting until Election Day to cast ballots, have more time to absorb bad news — in particular about the pandemic Trump & his party continue to dismiss. For GOP candidates, bad news is coming at the worst possible time.
As I say, polling overall is pretty consistent. I just wonder if it is leading people to underrate the possibility of a late shift toward Biden & the Democrats, because of the number of hard-to-survey new voters & a late barrage of #COVID19 news discouraging to Trump supporters.
This is not a prediction. I just think the possibility of a larger than expected @JoeBiden victory, with all that would mean for down-ballot races, appears significant to me. [end]
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