Thread. I don’t do much commenting on polls, leaving that to experts like @NateSilver538 @LarrySabato & @WisVoter. A whole bunch of polls have dropped in the last 24 hours, mostly showing Biden with a solid lead. Some still hint at ways Trump could make this a close race.
But I wonder. If turnout nationally will be up as much as many seem to think (@TargetSmart, a Democratic polling firm, thinks about 16 million non-voters in 2016 have cast ballots already this year), is Trump likely to get most of them? It seems unlikely. Another thing....
Republican voters, warned off early mail voting by Trump & waiting until Election Day to cast ballots, have more time to absorb bad news — in particular about the pandemic Trump & his party continue to dismiss. For GOP candidates, bad news is coming at the worst possible time.
As I say, polling overall is pretty consistent. I just wonder if it is leading people to underrate the possibility of a late shift toward Biden & the Democrats, because of the number of hard-to-survey new voters & a late barrage of #COVID19 news discouraging to Trump supporters.
This is not a prediction. I just think the possibility of a larger than expected @JoeBiden victory, with all that would mean for down-ballot races, appears significant to me. [end]

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More from @Zathras3

30 Oct
May I be so bold as to introduce a theological concept into the election campaign? This is A Sign From God. A candidate inviting you to a rally where you may contract a contagious disease after falling over from heatstroke is A Sign From God to vote for the other guy.
A candidate inviting you to a rally where you may contract a contagious disease and then stranding you in freezing weather miles from transportation is A Sign From God to vote for the other guy.
A candidate who tells you a pandemic growing rapidly across the country, every day -- cases, hospitalizations, deaths -- is actually ending is A Sign From God to vote for the other guy. God in His wisdom and somewhat mordant sense of humor is using the candidate for His purpose.
Read 13 tweets
27 Oct
Let's do a short thread about surrender, per this commentary by @DrLeanaWen. It's only the government that gets the option to surrender, of course, in a fight against #COVID19. The country has to live with it; people infected have to live with it. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Be that as it may, the Trump administration and the Republican Party have indeed chosen to surrender to the pandemic on behalf of the government. They will let public health experts keep their jobs, but will not let them drive a national strategy to suppress the virus.
Republicans will fill the airwaves with talk of vaccines and therapeutics, to the development of which they contribute nothing. They will remain inactive as the pandemic-stricken economy continues to contract, confronting millions of Americans with the prospect of destitution.
Read 20 tweets
14 Oct
I don’t have a lot to say about Judge Barrett, whose nomination under these circumstances I’d urge the Senate to reject if she were Brandeis reincarnated. But I did want to flag this @dino_grandoni coverage of her remarks yesterday about #ClimateChange washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
“I am not a scientist.” Eyeballs rolling skyward, for several reasons of which I’ll note just one. Judges are legal specialists, which is obviously necessary to a point. But it also means they can really screw things up when they choose to rule on substantive issues....
....about which they know little. I recall vividly, for example, years of confused litigation and EPA rulemaking produced when Judge Barrett’s idol Antonin Scalia decided regulations pursuant to the Clean Water Act directed at protecting habitat and water quality....
Read 10 tweets
4 Jun
Trump and Corruption: The corruption never stops in the Trump administration -- not for #COVID19, police killings or demonstrations to protest them. @JoshNBCNews sums up testimony given by purged State Department Inspector General IG Steve Linick....
....yesterday before House Foreign Affairs Committee, directly contradicting claims by Sec. Pompeo to have been unaware of investigations involving him and his wife making personal use of State Department resources. Committee statement (via @rgoodlaw): foreignaffairs.house.gov/2020/6/engel-m…
Trump and Corruption: The Pompeo investigation referenced above could be said to involve petty corruption. This report by @lydiadepillis @JustinElliott & @RobertFaturechi is about anything but that. Deputy Treasury Secretary's Justin Muzinich's.... propublica.org/article/this-t…
Read 32 tweets
17 Feb
Let’s think out loud about @MikeBloomberg. Specifically, about his money. What could he spend it on that would make a difference in the world, that people would notice and appreciate? [thread]
Well, Bloomberg is said to be worth north of $60 billion. That’s a lot. It gives him....options. For example: Bloomberg could buy, staff and endow for 20 years newspapers in, say, 25 cities from Portland to Honolulu. They’d mostly operate at a loss, but why would he care?
Bloomberg could be the savior of local journalism in America; this investment would change its culture, and its politics, reconnecting Americans with their local communities.
Read 19 tweets
14 Feb
So this is among the less surprising Breaking News! pieces I've ever seen. Of course Trump sent Giuliani to Ukraine to find damaging information on his political opponents, as the House impeachment managers argued; of course Trump lied about it while fighting impeachment.
The "red flashing lights, democracy in danger" vibe in Washington is discussed here in a good essay by @sbg1 that frankly... newyorker.com/news/letter-fr…
.....makes me wonder at the ability of people to believe things they have no reason at all to think are true, like Trump being restrained after beating the rap. So what is to be done about it?
Read 18 tweets

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