Tweet

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

31 Oct

Can we talk about the Bloomberg "freakout article"?

First, I'll say that a little freaking out is good. This election is far from over. The winner will be decided based on the actions of tens of millions of voters across the country over the next 4 days. But we should also be clear-eyed about the landscape.

First, yes, the vote share of black and latino voters in battleground states is currently slightly behind where they were at this point in time in '16. 1.1 points among Black voters and 0.3 behind for Latino voters.

Read 9 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

29 Oct

In 6 battleground states, black voters over the age of 65 have already exceeded their overall 2016 turnout numbers, thereby already setting turnout records with 6 days still remaining: AZ, FL, GA, NC, NV, TX.

In NC, GA, and TX Asian voters have already surpassed their 2016 overall turnout numbers, also setting turnout records with 6 days remaining. What's more, in AZ, FL, MI, and NV Asian seniors have surpassed their 2016 total vote numbers.

It's impossible to attribute these turnout surges to anything definitively, but some thoughts:
- Representation matters. Senator Kamala Harris has seemingly engaged AAPI voters, a group who historically have voted at very low rates.

Read 4 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

27 Oct

The idea that you can't learn anything from the early vote is silly. Can you predict who is going to win? Absolutely not. But we have answered two very important broad questions already by assessing the early vote:

1) Will turnout be high?
The answer here is clearly yes. We've sailed past 2016 early vote totals, with a week remaining. Yes, a big part of this is due to the pandemic. But the fact that 1 in 4 of these early voters didn't vote in '16 points towards very high overall turnout.

2) Are Democrats energized?
Yes. In some states, core Dem constituencies have already surpassed their TOTAL turnout in the '16 election. We not only know Dems are showing up, from the early vote we can assess relative intensity among subgroups.

Read 5 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

27 Oct

I tweet a lot about the people who didn't vote in '16 and have already cast an early ballot in this election. But let me take a second to talk about the 4,193,175 early voters who are voting for the first time in their life.

It won't come as a surprise that a huge portion of these voters are young - almost 40% are under the age of 30. But voters of all ages have decided to vote for the first time ever in this election. Over half a million Americans over the age of 65 have cast their first ballot!

These first time voters are much more likely to be unmarried women, relative to past elections, and relative to any other group. They account for almost 36% of these new voters.

Read 5 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

27 Oct

15,179,420 Americans who didn't vote in 2016 have already cast a ballot in the 2020 general election.

The Democratic lead among these surge voters is almost double their lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.

In Florida, 1,508,165 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.

Registered Dems have an 11.7% advantage among these surge voters, almost triple their 4.3% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.

In Arizona, 468,957 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.

Registered Dems have a 10.4% advantage among these surge voters, almost double their 5.4% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.

Read 5 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

25 Oct

I tweet a lot about the youth vote and not much about seniors, so here's a thread digging into what will likely be a crucial voting bloc this year.

In '16 seniors accounted for 25% of all ballots cast. As of now they account for 39% of all early votes cast - 20M votes.

Almost 3M of these early voting seniors didn't vote in the '16 election, and 472,195 are voting for the first time in their life. This surge is being driven largely by white, college educated seniors, who have seen their vote share increase by 8pts over this same point in '16.

This is somewhat wild, turnout among college educated white seniors is already at 78% of their final total vote in the 2016 general, while current early vote turnout among non-college white seniors is only at 49% of their overall 2016 turnout.

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Tom Bonier

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?