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Dougie Kass

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28 Oct

@realmoney

@realmoney Oct 28, 2020 | 09:45 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Are We Politicizing Our Markets Views?
* To thine own self be true
* Those that criticized me for my view that President Trump's actions/policies might adversely impact the markets may be politicizing their own market views today

"This above all: to thine own self be true
And it must follow, as the night the day
Thou canst not then be false to any man/Farewell, my blessing season this in thee!"
- Polonius, Hamlet

We all possess our own (absolute) political views. In recent years, the polarization of

these views have grown ever more extreme. Indeed, this Presidential election has delivered perhaps the most polarized views in American history.

In some quarters I have been roundly criticized by those who feel my stock market views have been impacted by my personal view of

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

27 Oct

@realmoney

Coming up on @realmoney

Not All Investment Views Are Created Equal
* All market views are not equal - nearly every investment view should have a different level of conviction
* After Monday's sizeable and swift dive, my short term market outlook is now blurry

* It may not be the time to be 'balls to the walls' (in either long or short direction)
* A large put position satisfies me for now
* If I was pushed for a short term view I would guess that the near term outlook is a bit more positive than negative - but not materially so

"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
--William Butler Yates
I like to write that the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
But, as an old acquaintance recently said to me, today there are more possible outcomes (some of them

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

26 Oct

@realmoney

@realmoney
Oct 26, 2020 | 04:15 PM EDT DOUG KASS
I Like My Positioning
* Especially into next Tuesday's election
* I end the day between small-to medium-sized net short in exposure (but closer to small!)
I end the day with large ($SPY) and ($QQQ) put positions (having covered

all my Index shorts -- for a nice profit -- into the whoosh lower).
After my long purchases today my net exposure is now between small- and medium-sized net short (actually close to smaller) but will change a lot depending on the direction of the market.
Given my put positions,

the lower the market goes, the shorter I get. The higher the market goes (and my puts leak in price), the longer I get.
As I wrote earlier I am surprised how quickly the market broke down today.
I have always been concerned about Covid-19 and I never thought a stimulus bill was

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

26 Oct

@realmoney

@realmoney
Oct 26, 2020 | 12:50 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Price Is Not Necessarily Truth (Part Whatever)
* Our investment world has changed
* And not for the better
I don't believe that price is truth as the changed market structure -- passive products and strategies that generally

worship at the altar of price momentum -- exaggerate price action.
It is my view, therefore, as I have written often, that these strategies have made the interpretation of charts less valuable than in the past.
Partially as a consequence, I have a feeling when some bullish

technicians turn bearish, if prices continue lower, I will be turning bullish.
It doesn't mean that the technicians will be wrong and that I will be right.
I am just pointing out that, and why, I believe that charts have lost some of the reliability of the past.
That said,

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

26 Oct

@realmoney

Last week on @realmoney
Oct 22, 2020 | 01:40 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Some Investment Themes to Consider Over the Next Few Months
As you map out your strategy for year-end and for 2021, here are some themes to consider:
* Short Fixed Income: Bonds are among the most risky and least

efficiently priced asset classes extant. The 10 year note yield is about to break to the upside (of its 200 day moving average) - the 30 year yield already has. A large, Democratic-led February stimulus package could be a catalyst for the 10 year US note to climb over 1% in the

near term.
* Short Homebuilders: The sector is negatively influenced by the rate of change in bond yields. With mortgage rates rising and home prices catapulting higher the seeds of slowing home demand are being sown. Peak Housing may be at hand in the next few months. After

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

25 Oct

@realdonaldtrump

@realdonaldtrump
Whiners, just like the Whiner in Chief: Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump threaten to sue Lincoln Project: Anti-Trump Republicans’ Times Square billboards accuse advisers of showing ‘indifference’ to Americans suffering amid pandemic. Gotta love The Lincoln

Project’s reply:

“The level of indignant outrage Jared Kushner, and Ivanka Trump have shown towards the Lincoln Project for exposing their indifference for the more than 223,000 people who have lost their lives due to the reckless mismanagement of Covid-19 is comical,” a

statement said.
“While we truly enjoy living rent-free in their heads, their empty threats will not be taken any more seriously than we take Ivanka and Jared. It is unsurprising that an administration that has never had any regard or understanding of our constitution would try

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