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30 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Famous last words, but it does now look as if only blatant theft — which is possible! — can save Trump. But what will be the state of the nation on Jan. 20? The pandemic is exploding 1/
We desperately need strong measures right away — actually several weeks ago: mask mandates, targeted lockdowns, and more. So do you think lame-duck Trump, Republican governors, and so on will go along with urgent action? 2/
If you believe that I have an infrastructure week to sell you, with a degree from Trump University thrown in. In reality, we're more likely to have Proud Boys threatening to kill anyone acting responsibly 3/
I'm politically a bit less scared of the next week than I was (again, famous last words). But I'm epidemiologically terrified, in part because bad people will still be running the country for the next two months 4/

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More from @paulkrugman

Paul Krugman Profile picture
1 Nov
The final stages of the Trump campaign have involved a lot of flailing. He tried running against imaginary anarchist hordes; when that didn't work, he tried running against Hunter Biden's laptop; now he's running against evil doctors 1/ Image
Trump's claim that the pandemic is basically being fabricated by money-grubbing physicians is grotesque; but it's not as random as it may seem. The shifting politics of doctors are a window into how both America and the GOP are changing 2/ nytimes.com/2020/10/30/us/… Image
Doctors used to be very Republican. Back in 1961 the American Medical Association urged doctors' wives (hey, it was 1961) to bring their friends over to hear Ronald Reagan denounce Medicare 3/
Read 9 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
31 Oct
Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/
Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both political and financial 2/
But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions: they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials, in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/
Read 8 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
30 Oct
This is remarkably vile. It's also politically stupid, isn't it? 1/
The public has a very high opinion of doctors and nurses 2/ news.gallup.com/poll/245597/nu…
And health care and social assistance accounts for 1 in 7 workers in Florida 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
28 Oct
Lots of good explainers on why the big GDP number we're likely to see tomorrow doesn't actually mean we're doing OK. I thought I'd add a schematic graph 1/
What we know from lots of evidence is that we're having a "reverse square root recovery" — huge plunge, rapid partial snapback, much slower growth since: 2/
"3rd quarter growth" will actually be growth from the average of the 2nd q to the average of the 3rd — which means that it will mostly be telling us that there was rapid growth earlier this year, not that we're growing now: 3/
Read 4 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
27 Oct
I usually try to avoid political hot takes, bc what do I know? But I'm feeling both terrified and philosophical about the Barrett confirmation. Her chance to do immense harm will basically come *next week*. After that, she will be a GOP liability 1/
Right now, everything is pointing to a Dem tsunami. If you look at the median of state polls — which excludes dodgy outfits — it suggests something like a 9-point D swing since 2016, which would be a blowout 2/ nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
Dave Wasserman, who is looking at a mass of district-level polls — and warned correctly about 2016 — is saying the same thing 3/
Read 6 tweets
Paul Krugman Profile picture
25 Oct
Many people have probably heard about the Great Barrington Declaration, denouncing social distancing and calling for "herd immunity." It's popular with the White House, and it's the product of a Koch-linked think tank 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/19/hea…
So I've been going through articles from the American Institute for Economic Research, and found one from five weeks ago lauding South Dakota as "a fortress of liberty and hope protected from the grasps of overbearing politicians." 2/
Here's the article: 3/ aier.org/article/south-…
Read 4 tweets

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