The final stages of the Trump campaign have involved a lot of flailing. He tried running against imaginary anarchist hordes; when that didn't work, he tried running against Hunter Biden's laptop; now he's running against evil doctors 1/
Trump's claim that the pandemic is basically being fabricated by money-grubbing physicians is grotesque; but it's not as random as it may seem. The shifting politics of doctors are a window into how both America and the GOP are changing 2/ nytimes.com/2020/10/30/us/…
Doctors used to be very Republican. Back in 1961 the American Medical Association urged doctors' wives (hey, it was 1961) to bring their friends over to hear Ronald Reagan denounce Medicare 3/
But these days doctors tend to be Democrats, for several reasons: they're often women, they're generally employees rather than small businessmen, they're burdened by med school debt 4/ wsj.com/articles/docto…
Also, medicine isn't and can't be an ordinary business. Doctors are required to swear some version of the Hippocratic Oath, and while they may not always be saints, we do expect and often get a higher ethical standard than from many other professions 5/
There is, after all, a reason we have TV series about heroic doctors but not about heroic real estate developers. A doctor known for sharp practices who repeatedly bilked his patients would have his license suspended, not become president 6/
Which brings us to the modern GOP: hostile to science and expertise of all kinds, exalting the profit motive, accusing anyone claiming to stand for higher principles other than religious faith of "political correctness". Trump isn't an outlier; he fits right in 7/
Oh, and I should mention that there's a remarkable association between modern conservatism and the hawking of quack nutritional supplements 8/ brickhousenutrition.com/pages/benshapi…
So Trump's war on modern medicine isn't just a convenient excuse for his pandemic failure. It's another battle in the right's long war on rationality and those who defend it 9/
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Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/
Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both political and financial 2/
But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions: they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials, in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/
Famous last words, but it does now look as if only blatant theft — which is possible! — can save Trump. But what will be the state of the nation on Jan. 20? The pandemic is exploding 1/
We desperately need strong measures right away — actually several weeks ago: mask mandates, targeted lockdowns, and more. So do you think lame-duck Trump, Republican governors, and so on will go along with urgent action? 2/
If you believe that I have an infrastructure week to sell you, with a degree from Trump University thrown in. In reality, we're more likely to have Proud Boys threatening to kill anyone acting responsibly 3/
Lots of good explainers on why the big GDP number we're likely to see tomorrow doesn't actually mean we're doing OK. I thought I'd add a schematic graph 1/
What we know from lots of evidence is that we're having a "reverse square root recovery" — huge plunge, rapid partial snapback, much slower growth since: 2/
"3rd quarter growth" will actually be growth from the average of the 2nd q to the average of the 3rd — which means that it will mostly be telling us that there was rapid growth earlier this year, not that we're growing now: 3/
I usually try to avoid political hot takes, bc what do I know? But I'm feeling both terrified and philosophical about the Barrett confirmation. Her chance to do immense harm will basically come *next week*. After that, she will be a GOP liability 1/
Right now, everything is pointing to a Dem tsunami. If you look at the median of state polls — which excludes dodgy outfits — it suggests something like a 9-point D swing since 2016, which would be a blowout 2/ nytimes.com/live/2020/pres…
Dave Wasserman, who is looking at a mass of district-level polls — and warned correctly about 2016 — is saying the same thing 3/
Many people have probably heard about the Great Barrington Declaration, denouncing social distancing and calling for "herd immunity." It's popular with the White House, and it's the product of a Koch-linked think tank 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/19/hea…
So I've been going through articles from the American Institute for Economic Research, and found one from five weeks ago lauding South Dakota as "a fortress of liberty and hope protected from the grasps of overbearing politicians." 2/