1) Portfolio summary - Oct-end

$ADYEY $AYX $BABA $CRWD $DAO $DDOG $DKNG $DOCU $FROG $GDRX $MELI $OKTA $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $SE $SHOP $SNOW $SQ $TWLO $U $VRM $ZM

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +343.54%
$ACWI +32.03%
$SPX +50.63%

Contd...
2) CAGR since inception (1 Sept 2016) -

Portfolio +42.94%
$ACWI +6.89%
$SPX +10.32%

YTD return -

Portfolio +221.75%
$ACWI (-)2.52%
$SPX +1.21%

Contd...
3) Biggest positions -

1) $BABA 2) $MELI 3) $SE 4) $ROKU 5) $PINS

New buys - $GDRX $PINS $PLTR
Sells - $ETSY $FEAC $FSLY

Contd...
4) Commentary -

First and foremost, my broker's new software is glitching so I haven't been able to post my usual performance charts with the benchmarks. Instead, I've posted a screenshot of my portfolio return since inception and the standard YTD performance chart with...
5) ... inbuilt benchmarks which I can't edit. I'll contact my broker on Monday and try and sort this out.

Moving onto my portfolio, true to its reputation, October turned out to be a pretty rough month for my stocks and the broad market. During the month, my portfolio hit a...
6)...new high but due to the election/stimulus related sell-off, it gave back those gains and then some. Still, my portfolio managed to close the month +221.75% YTD so I'm very satisfied with the growth.

During October, I made a few changes to my portfolio...
7) I sold my shares of $ETSY , $FEAC and $FSLY and invested in $GDRX , $PINS , $PLTR

I sold $ETSY due to low growth estimates (and to raise cash for $PLTR), booked my gain in $FEAC to raise cash for $GDRX and closed out $FSLY due to its shocking press release! ...
8) When I sold out of $FSLY around $91/share and grabbed $PINS, I was criticised by some but right now, it seems my decision was correct.

Yesterday, $FSLY closed at $63.51 (down another 30% from where I sold) and $PINS closed a fair bit higher than my purchase price...
9) Elsewhere, in order to raise cash for $PLTR, I booked my gains in $ETSY (its future growth estimates are weak).

In my opinion, $PLTR is a solid business with a durable 'moat' and given its growth estimates, it is currently trading at a reasonable valuation...
10) So, I'm expecting good things from this new investment.

Finally, in order to raise cash for $GDRX I booked my gain in $FEAC. I really like $GDRX as a business, it is already profitable and if my assessment is correct, this should be a rewarding long-term investment....
11)...I'm a retired guy now and these days, whenever I need cash for a new position, I have to raise it by selling an existing holding. This is why I reluctantly sold $FEAC - in any event, I already own shares of $DKNG $SEA and $U so have some exposure to the gaming industry...
12) Turning to the broad market, as I posted about a week ago, investors are likely to remain jittery until the US elections so it is my belief that the selling will probably continue until the middle of next week (or longer if the election result is contested).

So, we might...
13)...have to endure some more near-term angst/pain.

My short-term caution notwithstanding, I expect the stock market to rebound so the ongoing weakness is probably a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.

In terms of my portfolio, I am very comfortable with...
14)...my current holdings and believe they will thrive over the long-term. After all, who doesn't like and use ecommerce, online payments, gaming, software and streaming?

Accordingly, I am just staying invested during this political circus and am certain that Mr. Market will...
15)...calm down in due course. It always does.

Drawdowns and volatility are normal; if one is seeking a high return, he/she must also endure the discomfort - if it was easy, everyone would be doing it! No free lunch.

Hope this has been useful.

THE END.
16) Afterthought -

I don't have any special powers (or a team of analysts at my disposal). Anybody who invests in a bunch of rapidly growing, dominant businesses and is able to sit through the volatility can generate market-beating returns over the long-run.

All the best!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Puru Saxena

Puru Saxena Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @saxena_puru

13 Oct
Portfolio update (mid-month) -



New position -
Sold -
Why I grabbed shares of and sold out of -

is an iconic business which I've followed for years and up until recently, I didn't like its customer concentration and reliance on the public sector. However, after reading the company's S-1, press releases and...
...discussions with @cperruna , I changed my mind and picked up shares.

appears to be a solid business with a durable 'moat' i.e. customer switching costs, network effects, brand intangibles and mgt. has guided for 40%+ revenue growth in '20 and 30%+ growth in '21...
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
1) Why the tech bubble might not pop in 2020 -

Due to my heavy tech exposure, over the past few months, I've spent a lot of time thinking about the '00-'02 tech bust.

After all, COVID 'winners' have now become mainstream and valuations have shot through the roof; so I'm...
2)...naturally concerned about what may be lurking around the corner.

After considering all factors, I've come to the conclusion that although we are in an 'incipient bubble' the party isn't likely to end anytime soon due to two reasons...
3) First and foremost, unlike early 2000, the Fed is currently extremely accommodative and creating hundreds of billions of new dollars. Furthermore, unlike early 2000, the yield curve is currently normal (not inverted).

Last but not least, unlike the 2000-2002...
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct
Carbon emissions by country -

#1 - China
#2 - USA
#3 - EU (not really a country)
#4 - India
#5 - Russia

#ClimateChange
Carbon emissions **per-capita** by region -

#1 - Middle East
#2 - North America
#3 - Australia and New Zealand
Each country's share of CO2 emissions (August 2020) -

1) China - 28%
2) USA - 15%
3) India - 7%
4) Russia - 5%
5) Japan - 3%

#ClimateChange
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
The naysayers now saying that "I got lucky this year"!

If 22 years of investing/living through prior cycles, learning from past mistakes, continuous learning and months of backtesting to fine-tune my hedging strategy can be described as 'luck' - then yes guilty as charged.
Haters before the crash -

"He is crazy for owning these bubble stocks which will crash hard during the next bear-market."

Haters after the crash -

"He just got lucky, just happened to hedge in time and somehow owned those stocks which benefited from COVID. He is clueless."
A no. of people have asked me why my portfolio didn't fare better between early '18 and early '20?

Short answer - my 45% allocation to China

Due to the 'Trade War', my China ADRs declined by ~50% in '18 and treaded water in '19. For 2 years, half my portfolio was dead money.
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
1) Portfolio summary - Sep-end



Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +354.65%
+34.83%
+54.92%

Contd... Image
2) CAGR since inception (1 Sept 2016) -

Portfolio +44.94%
+7.60%
+11.33%

YTD return -

Portfolio +227.27%
(-)0.45%
+4.09%

Contd... Image
3) Biggest positions -

1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

New buys - (rentals) +
Sells - 1797.HK

Contd....
Read 19 tweets
28 Sep
1/7) *Ecommerce, online payments, software*

IMHO, these are modern-day utilities; consumers and companies *need* them to get by. Due to network effects and/or stickiness, these businesses are quite 'moaty' and their customers use their services regularly; through good and....
2/7)...bad times.

By and large, these businesses offer 'mission critical' services; so their cash flows are pretty predictable and consistent.

Whether the economy is good or bad, who doesn't order online, make payments online or use software? ...
3/7) The ecommerce, online payments and software markets are enormous - very big TAMs (AWS/AMZN, GCP, Azure, Alibaba, Mercabolibre, Sea, Shopify are still growing rapidly).

Many of the businesses in these industries have very high gross margins and their revenues are likely to..
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!