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Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
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31 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I very very rarely read opinion pieces that make my stomach turn, but being married to a French speaking Muslim of North African origin, this one did. The first and by far most numerous victims of the dogmatic Islam on display in it are the liberal 1/n
politico.eu/article/france…
free thinking Muslims that has always sustained Islamic urban life. To read that French secularism quote "stigmatizes and humiliates even the most moderate or secular Muslims, many of whom do not understand French secularists’ obsessive focus on Islam, the veil, daily prayers 2/n
or Islamic teachings." is patently absurd. This group don't care about French secularism, don't wear the veil, or pray daily in public, or for that matter feel they need to consult Islamic teachings before they go on with their lives in perfect harmony with their neighbors 3/n
and loved ones, where ever they live or whom these are. To assert that French secularism in France today forms half of what Eatwell called "cumulative extremism" is equally absurd and reflects (again) the desire of a few dangerous men (it always is) to 4/n researchportal.bath.ac.uk/en/publication…
claim to speak for a religion and dictate how it must be practiced...... or else! Pathetic, ignorant, authoritarian. #StandWithFrance

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More from @jfkirkegaard

Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
29 May
As an early adopter of the "Hamiltonian Moment" description of what has recently happened in the EU with the new FR-DE proposal and now the EUR750bn @EU_Commission pplan that now seem to have become a punching bag for too negative views of these developments - a thread: 1/n
1) Hamilton didn't establish a full US fiscal union, but rather managed to mutualize 35-40% of US GDP in states' debts from their "shared struggle" during the War of Independence 1775-83. Hamilton and his successors though quickly paid down this debt, so it was only 5-6% of 2/n
US GDP by the time the next big war (of 1812) broke out, relying almost wholly on tariff revenue. As such, Hamilton failed to convince his contemporaries about the benefits of a "large liquid US sovereign debt market". Redistributive US federal taxation came only with 16th 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
27 May
The @EU_Commission is out with its new set of proposals for the recovery - ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…. Some early thoughts: 1) As expected the earlier French-German 500bn fund proposal forms the foundation for the financing, with up to EUR750bn in loans added. These are 1/n
sums that, given their for the first time explicit macro-stabilization purpose, are likely to be both politically and economically relevant. 2) The majority of the funds will be "new money" to be spent/invested with only relatively limited reliance on leverage to incentivize 2/n
more private investment. The fact that the proposed equity support pillar relies on such leverage though means the details of this proposal should be studied in detail when available and headline numbers might be inflated. 3) The @EU_Commission proposes a set of new own 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
18 May
It appears that a "Project Eurobond" for the pandemic recovery has now been agreed by France and Germany - EUR500bn in new debt back proposed directly by the EU budget (i.e. not ESM style by member state guarantees) - bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/aktuel…
This is a really, really big deal deal, even if many may quip about the size of the fund. If approved by the EU27, this proposal would set the precedent for "joint expenditures for joint struggles", which is the definition of a "Hamiltonian moment" in Europe. Crucial 2/n
precedent being set is that EU countries can issue joint debt to fight a common problem (recall that Hamilton "merely" consolidated US states' war debts). This time it took a historic pandemic to reach this agreement - next time, however, the threshold may be lower and 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
9 Apr
Some thoughts on the rumored "just like Xmas, we'd all like to go (stay) home for Easter, too" deal in the EuroGroup. 1) Headline figure of almost EUR500bn is a good downpayment, even if it includes "hypotheticals" (ESM) and leveraged instruments (EIB). 2) Compoments known 1/n
EIB - EUR25bn (EUR200bn with leverage); EC SURE - EUR100bn; ESM creditline of apparently up to EUR240bn(?) + and some voluntary medical supplies. 3) Key milestone is the agreement on @ESM_Press creditline, which sets precedent for European backstopped financial assistance in 2/n
joint crisis/exogenous shock with the ONLY conditionality that the resources be spent in a earmarked manner towards the crisis (shared problem). 4) Few if any MS will take any money from @ESM_Press, given @ecb PEPP program, so this is an OMT-like offer; 5) Key though is the 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
26 Mar
Tonight's @EUCouncil was a YUUUGE disappointment, but thanks to @ECB all is not yet lost for Europe. Several things must be clear though on the path ahead; 1) The PEPP is mutualization of #Covid19 related expenses onto the @ECB balance sheet for a VERY long time. Means MS 1/n
now has the capacity to do what they need to do to save lives for as long as the emergency lasts. This makes the ESM frankly redundant for now - unsurprising since it was never designed to bailout a large MS (OMT for that) and much less deal with a symmetric EA-wide shock 2/n
Get over it @MinPres! It is also less clear that a "Healthcare-Focused Corona-Bond" is really useful now, as 9 heads of state/gov suggested. Again - let the ECB do its job and start worrying about how the recovery can be made symmetric - that is when new joint instruments 3/n
Read 10 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
18 Mar
Europe's "Hamiltonian Moment" Must Be Now! A short thread.
EU econ forecasts are quickly being revised to the Covid19 reality of maybe 15+% drops in GDP in 1H 2020. This from a perfectly exogenous shock that no member state had any culpability in, invalidating any claim of 1/n
"legacy issues" or moral hazard. The fiscal costs of #covid19 are instead coming from a shared - to quote Macron - "war experience" across Europe. This makes this moment in European history quite similar to the US in 1790, as Alexander Hamilton struck a deal to let the 2/n
new US federal government assume the debts of the US states, which had almost all been incurred in pursuit of the shared endeavor of the US War of Independence against the UK. It was this political fact - costs of a shared experience and not decades of an individual US state 3/n
Read 14 tweets

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