the philippines is being hit by the strongest storm the world has seen this year, affecting an estimated *20-30 million people*, and guess which word doesn't warrant a mention in international news coverage edition.cnn.com/2020/11/01/asi…
it's too early to say by how much climate change made this storm stronger but there's important context that we really should report as soon as such disasters strike.
like that by 2050, coastal floods that used to hit once a century will strike many cities *every single year*
here's a sobering sunday activity: click on this report about oceans from the IPCC, the gold-standard science on climate change, and CTRL+F "extreme" ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/…
Update: the NYT live coverage of Goni/Rolly has a big section on climate!
"As sea-surface temperatures rise, the Philippines’ positioning in warm ocean waters means the country is being subjected to both bigger and more frequent tropical storms."
This is particularly good because it explains how slum-dwellers, miners and farmers are more at risk from floods and landslides, and how destroying mangroves has taken away natural barriers @newshound16@hkbeech
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Bleak new modelling from the German Society for Epidemiologists tonight:
-Reproduction rate of 1-1.2 needed to not over-stress hospitals is "practically inconceivable"
-Alternative: months-long containment starting in next 14 days to hit R<1 dgepi.de/assets/Stellun…#COVID19
The R values in the first graphs mean how many people an infected person passes the virus onto. Unchecked, it's about 2-3, but things we're doing now have brought it down.
Germany has 30k intensive care beds and would need R<1.2 to keep them within capacity.
"Controlling the propagation speed into this narrow range seems practically inconceivable because even a small increase of the reproductive rate would lead to the health system being overwhelmed."
The other option is containment measures that get R below 1.