Bleak new modelling from the German Society for Epidemiologists tonight:
-Reproduction rate of 1-1.2 needed to not over-stress hospitals is "practically inconceivable"
-Alternative: months-long containment starting in next 14 days to hit R<1
dgepi.de/assets/Stellun… #COVID19
-Reproduction rate of 1-1.2 needed to not over-stress hospitals is "practically inconceivable"
-Alternative: months-long containment starting in next 14 days to hit R<1
dgepi.de/assets/Stellun… #COVID19
The R values in the first graphs mean how many people an infected person passes the virus onto. Unchecked, it's about 2-3, but things we're doing now have brought it down.
Germany has 30k intensive care beds and would need R<1.2 to keep them within capacity.
Germany has 30k intensive care beds and would need R<1.2 to keep them within capacity.
"Controlling the propagation speed into this narrow range seems practically inconceivable because even a small increase of the reproductive rate would lead to the health system being overwhelmed."
The other option is containment measures that get R below 1.
The other option is containment measures that get R below 1.
That means restricting social interaction to the bare minimum in the entire population as well as what Germany is already doing (wash hands, isolate infected people, quarantine contacts). To prevent reinfection, we'd need mass testing.
And all this would last for months.
And all this would last for months.
The key line: "Extra measures would have to be introduced within the next two weeks to not exceed the capacities of the intensive care units. These cuts would have to be maintained over the next few months to completely contain the spread of infection."
tldr; modelling from German epidemiologists says we have a narrow window of time to decide whether to flatten the curve or contain it completely, and whichever we choose, the measures will be around for months. @DGEpi_eV #COVID19 #coronavirusdeutschland
A caveat:
