Are these the outfit whose big-deal Covid model was "Oh, it goes up, then it comes down, so let's just say it is a Normal Distribution!"

If so, I am not surprised at anything they do!

It would be like asking why a puppy is chasing its tail.

Just watch, and enjoy the fun!
As for how effective masks are, I guess they just make up some sort of reduction factor, and model what that does to the spread.

Not terribly exciting. That factor is very uncertain, and it doesn't take a genius to realise that a really small reduction will not contribute much.
First, if the reduction really was as huge as 1/4, I would be banging the drum much harder, for masks.

My guess is that it is closer to 1/10 or 1/20.
Second, DEFINITELY it won't be the same for inbound as outbound.

Inbound will be far weaker.

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More from @ProfDFrancis

1 Nov
Josh isn't the first person to think of this, merely the last.
Why don't we have such studies?
Who does studies like that? RCTs?
Read 60 tweets
1 Nov
Both John Mandrola and Vinay Prasad are angry about this study in JAMA. Image
I thought I might join in and give the study a bashing. Image
Read 35 tweets
31 Oct
Great question from Pranev Sharma
Personally I have led a charmed life and never been bullied at work.

But as a TPD this is something I am determined to uncover and eradicate.

When I was a junior doctor, we always assumed that if anyone complained about anything "the old bastards will shaft you forever".
But now we once-registrars have become consultants, we realise we are the same people and

(a) Old gits don't actually shaft anyone - they can't be bothered and indeed have no levers for it: nobody cares what some old git says about someone, when making appointments.
Read 8 tweets
30 Oct
Hidden camera reveals Donald Trump's interaction with Billy Bush.

The really shocking thing wasn't that the Great Leader is a sickening thug, but how a human being can think this behaviour is "benign".

Well done to 2 people for being patient enough to explain it to him, slowly. Image
We need more people like Lena M and Jay Deaz.

Not minimizing or accepting vile behaviour, now has a name, although it is embarrassing that it needs one in a civilized society.

"Active Bystander"

For people who feebly claim that they don't know what to do, there are 4 hints:
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
Great display in elegant cartoon form to help people understand why we are trying social distancing, masks etc.

english.elpais.com/society/2020-1…

I don't know if the content is scientifically accurate or not (and have no idea how to check) but the images are easy to understand.
I am increasingly puzzled as to what an Aerosol is.

In the good old days, e.g. 1 year ago, this was all I knew about aerosols. Image
Now it is harder

The El País article has nice diagrams of aerosols etc

But the left side says that aerosols are a SUBSET of droplets ...

while the right side indicates that they are very dramatically DISJOINT sets, with a whole no-mans land of 100-300 nm gap between them. Image
Read 11 tweets
11 Oct
No. Because they had insights.

Jeff Bezos's insight was that he could slash wasted effort in purchases, via internet + clever algorithms.

Elon Musk's insight was that WE should tell our bank to pay a seller, not give the seller our account details and ask THEM to take the money
Actually I don't think she is so foolish as to believe her own soundbite.

I think she is just saying this to appeal to not-very-bright people who have failed to understand that life is not a zero-sum game.
Billionaires like these 2 exist because they have been right, many many times, when the rest of us were wrong.

And UNLIKE billionaires who gained their wealth by gambling, these ones gained their wealth by providing things that people wanted.
Read 4 tweets

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