The MRC mid-point forecast (made on 12th Oct) was for 465 deaths / day by 26 Oct & a range of 240-690.
PHE data are now fairly complete for 26 Oct & actual total is 201. A few more will be reported later but final total seems likely to be well below even the lower bound forecast
Forecasting is really difficult & I don’t want to criticise individuals. But it is important that lessons are learnt.
This forecast was made for a date only 2 weeks ahead, i.e. it was based on infections already in the system (given the lag between infections & deaths).
Also, the forecast range was very wide (240 to 690) so it is very striking that data has come in below even the lower bound.
No wonder then that people are sceptical about the modelling the Government presented on Saturday suggesting up to 4,000 deaths per day.
Throughout the crisis, there seems to be a systematic tendency for forecasts & modelling to predict very scary numbers which rarely come to pass.
The Government slides supporting the latest lockdown presented a range of scenarios but every single one has daily deaths significantly above the peak in April and reaching that point in less than 2 months time.
These predictions are made at a time when infections have stabilised (from new positives/Zoe App estimates).
Who knows if it will continue & nobody can be certain about future deaths. But is it reasonable not to present a single scenario in which deaths peak at less than April?
The worry many people have is that modelling/forecasts are being used in a political way to promote lockdown decisions rather than to present the public with a reasonable range of plausible outcomes.
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Deaths, admissions etc still increasing but relatively slowly (esp. compared to the Govt's presentation on Sat!)
Positive tests down again at 28 Oct, but still not an established trend, e.g. will probably go back up a little on 29th/30th.
7-day average of positive cases down (on 28th Oct) in East, London, NE & NW. Only up in West Mids, other regions steady.
Likely to be some regional variation in subsequent few days.
7-day average of positive tests in hotspots of Liverpool (+ Merseyside), Manchester (+GM), Nottingham, Sheffield, Newcastle all coming down at 28th Oct. Bristol probably down from 29th.
7-day ave positive tests in England actually down 1% on 27th Oct, consistent with increase in Zoe App estimated total infections slowing down.
Deaths & admissions still up but latter just by 1% on 30 Oct.
Notable that 7-day average of positive tests are down (slightly) amongst over-80s in England for first time as of 27 Oct. We will have to see if that trend continues.
In the regions, positive tests down (at 27 Oct) in E Mids (just), East, London, NE & NW. Up in SE, SW & W Mids.
Positive tests also coming down in Scot & NI despite different lockdown approach.
Deaths & hospital stats continue up (no update yet to admissions) but no change to positive tests on 26 Oct (strictly speaking up 0.4%). Consistent with Zoe App total infection estimates which are going up more slowly than previously.
Positive tests in the North East & North West down on 26th Oct. No change in E Mids & Yorks. Others up a little.
Positive tests coming down in lots of hotspot areas at 26 Oct:
Liverpool (& Merseyside), Manchester (GM not yet but probably from 27 Oct), Nottingham (+Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling), Sheffield, Barnsley, Blackpool, Lancs, Plymouth.
Positive tests pretty stable at the moment (consistent with slower increase from Zoe data).
No change to 7-day average of deaths on 24 Oct. Long run trend trend is still up, but no exponential growth.
Looking at regions, East Mids, SE, SW & West Mids are increasing (at 25th Oct). E, NE, NW & Yorks all steady. London actually down a little.
Positive tests in Liverpool & Merseyside as a whole coming down quite rapidly now (and remember decreasing well before Tier 3 could have had an effect).