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2 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Update to various Covid-19 indicators.

Deaths, admissions etc still increasing but relatively slowly (esp. compared to the Govt's presentation on Sat!)

Positive tests down again at 28 Oct, but still not an established trend, e.g. will probably go back up a little on 29th/30th.
7-day average of positive cases down (on 28th Oct) in East, London, NE & NW. Only up in West Mids, other regions steady.

Likely to be some regional variation in subsequent few days.
7-day average of positive tests in hotspots of Liverpool (+ Merseyside), Manchester (+GM), Nottingham, Sheffield, Newcastle all coming down at 28th Oct. Bristol probably down from 29th.

Leeds & Birmingham a bit up & down.
To illustrate, here is the decline in positive tests in Liverpool starting well before Tier 3 could have had any effect.
And the same graph for Nottingham.

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More from @cricketwyvern

David Paton Profile picture
2 Nov
The MRC mid-point forecast (made on 12th Oct) was for 465 deaths / day by 26 Oct & a range of 240-690.

PHE data are now fairly complete for 26 Oct & actual total is 201. A few more will be reported later but final total seems likely to be well below even the lower bound forecast
Forecasting is really difficult & I don’t want to criticise individuals. But it is important that lessons are learnt.

This forecast was made for a date only 2 weeks ahead, i.e. it was based on infections already in the system (given the lag between infections & deaths).
Also, the forecast range was very wide (240 to 690) so it is very striking that data has come in below even the lower bound.

No wonder then that people are sceptical about the modelling the Government presented on Saturday suggesting up to 4,000 deaths per day.
Read 7 tweets
David Paton Profile picture
1 Nov
Update to various Covid-19 indicators.

7-day ave positive tests in England actually down 1% on 27th Oct, consistent with increase in Zoe App estimated total infections slowing down.

Deaths & admissions still up but latter just by 1% on 30 Oct.
Notable that 7-day average of positive tests are down (slightly) amongst over-80s in England for first time as of 27 Oct. We will have to see if that trend continues.
In the regions, positive tests down (at 27 Oct) in E Mids (just), East, London, NE & NW. Up in SE, SW & W Mids.

Positive tests also coming down in Scot & NI despite different lockdown approach.
Read 4 tweets
David Paton Profile picture
31 Oct
Update to various Covid-19 indicators.

Deaths & hospital stats continue up (no update yet to admissions) but no change to positive tests on 26 Oct (strictly speaking up 0.4%). Consistent with Zoe App total infection estimates which are going up more slowly than previously. Image
Positive tests in the North East & North West down on 26th Oct. No change in E Mids & Yorks. Others up a little.
Positive tests coming down in lots of hotspot areas at 26 Oct:

Liverpool (& Merseyside), Manchester (GM not yet but probably from 27 Oct), Nottingham (+Rushcliffe, Broxtowe & Gedling), Sheffield, Barnsley, Blackpool, Lancs, Plymouth.
Read 4 tweets
David Paton Profile picture
31 Oct
A new national lockdown would have devastating effects on the economy, businesses, jobs, isolation, loneliness, mental health.

Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But ...
... the evidence suggests that infections are not actually increasing rapidly.

Positive tests increasing at about 1% per day & no longer increasing at all in North West & North East.

In Liverpool, positive tests coming down for some time (including in older age groups).
Daily increase in Zoe App estimate of total infected is slowing & now under 2% for most recent few days.

ONS estimates a little higher at 4% but that's only up 23rd Oct when increase in positive tests & Zoe data were also a bit higher.

Triage data going down quite steadily.
Read 4 tweets
David Paton Profile picture
30 Oct
Update to various Covid-19 indicators.

Positive tests pretty stable at the moment (consistent with slower increase from Zoe data).

No change to 7-day average of deaths on 24 Oct. Long run trend trend is still up, but no exponential growth.
Looking at regions, East Mids, SE, SW & West Mids are increasing (at 25th Oct). E, NE, NW & Yorks all steady. London actually down a little.
Positive tests in Liverpool & Merseyside as a whole coming down quite rapidly now (and remember decreasing well before Tier 3 could have had an effect).
Read 9 tweets
David Paton Profile picture
29 Oct
Update to English hospital deaths by date. Headline reported figure is 192 (174 yesterday, 152 last Thurs).

5-day reporting total is up marginally from 121 to 123 (at 24 Oct).
Here is trend in the like-for-like 5-day reporting total over the past month. 7-day average up very slightly to 117 ...
... compared to 644 at the peak in April.
Read 4 tweets

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