One day until Election Day, and you can still find plenty of evidence for whatever you think is going to happen. For those who think Biden won before the first debate was even held, the polls have tightened but he still looks to be in the lead almost everywhere that matters.
If this election is a pure referendum on Trump vs. the most generic opponent ever, and a critical mass of voters decided thumbs-down on Trump before the campaign really began, then you'd see the kind of polls you're seeing in the homestretch.
Some groups around the margins are bouncing around, but a lot of people decided they're livid at Trump over the coronavirus, they don't remember or care about anything before the pandemic, and they've decided to give someone else a shot. They made up their minds long ago.
They're not eager to vote for Biden and they're not given to public demonstrations. A lot of them are terrified of leaving their houses because of the virus. Even the biggest demonstrations are just a fraction of the vast size of the electorate, after all.
On the other hand, if you think Trump was always much stronger than the polls suggested or that momentum is shifting his way in the homestretch, those unbelievably huge demonstrations are a hopeful sign. They're too big and diverse not to represent a groundswell of support.
If all those people are willing to take to the streets and drive around in parades, even in blue states, it has to mean SOMETHING is happening with the electorate. Enthusiastic supporters are more likely to vote. Everyone knows a lot of Trump voters are waiting for Election Day.
There's some bad news in the early voting returns for Democrats, and they're acting worried in places where the polls say Biden is well ahead. Trump's keeping the same incredible homestretch campaign schedule that helped him so much in 2016.
Biden's brain is turning to porridge right before the eyes of voters, his public speeches dissolving into nonsense babble. Harris is putting out "second look at Marxism!" videos. The illusion that Biden is any kind of moderate on any issue is dissolving fast.
If there really are undecided voters left - or maybe people who told pollsters they'd vote against Trump, but might have second thoughts before they actually vote - the momentum shift in Trump's favor could make a difference.
That "soft anti-Trump" vote may turn out to be as consequential as the "shy Trump" vote - not just people reluctant to admit to pollsters they're voting for Trump, but people who said they were voting against him but they're having second thoughts.
Much depends on factors that will only be obvious in retrospect. How many voters really made up their minds long ago? Were the media and Big Tech successful in choking off stories that might have made them change their minds? What issues really moved certain demographics?
How many new voters were there compared to 2016, and which way did they vote? That seems like a huge X factor, a potentially large group in certain key states that's hard to poll and difficult to predict. Did Trump lose a great deal of his 2016 support?
Are Democrat voters who sat out 2016 because Hillary was Hillary going to come back for Biden, or because they hate Trump so much now? Are people more eager to get the economy going again, or willing to sink into a lockdown depression because they fear the virus so much?
Will the enthusiastic voters who love Trump outweigh the people who hate him, the people who said long ago they would never vote for him under any circumstances? Does Biden seem generic enough for some of the latter to vote for him instead of staying home? We'll know soon. /end
Addendum: Lots of warnings that Romney had more visible enthusiasm right before Election Day 2012 and it didn't matter. He didn't have anything like what Trump is seeing right now, and there's more real, heartfelt enthusiasm for Trump - but still, the electorate is huge.
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