Thread by @ohanloncmr

My Covid thoughts
Regardless of ones stance on nphet, pcr issues, casedemic vs pandemic, here is what I think I can summarise from recent months @SusanMitchell_ @DonnellyStephen @RiochtConor2 @MihaiVioreanu @DrJohnCurran @Care2much18 @higginsdavidw @jlamber55605930

1/ Covid cases are increasing for two reasons. Firstly of course the resurgence of cases reflects greater amounts of people coming together. More socialising, bigger numbers of social contacts. But ..

2/ Many “cases” currently picked up through contact test and trace may well reflect the detection of non infectious viral remnants in asymptomatic people, or remnants of previous Covid (in people who had Covid many months ago)

3/ And hence leads to an exaggeration of the numbers of cases, and the numbers of potentially infectious people. But it’s a simple equation - if overall cases are rising, there is going to be a higher number of people requiring hospitalisation. That’s the numbers game.

4/ 4.We do need to know where clusters are happening. Our focus apart from each and every one of us trying to do our best and be sensible, is to ensure the most vulnerable are protected.

5/ That does not imply cocooning, forced isolation, or approaches like that. It’s to simply be more cognisant of limiting numbers of people indoors and duration indoors when visiting a parent, or vulnerable person. Wear masks, and don’t travel if awaiting a test result.

6/ The overall risk of death is now far lower than it was in April/May. This may reflect better treatments; it may reflect the fact that the age groups mostly with Covid now are younger, and therefore less likely to be severely affected.

7/ It may also reflect the fact that some people in hospital with Covid are in fact not admitted due to Covid but have been incidentally found to have Covid due to being swabbed for Covid due to having a pending procedure/operation.

8/ A problem will be, however, if someone has Covid in hospital (even if just on a pre op swab, even with no symptoms at all) it may lead to a host of cancellations of surgeries/procedures from that ward, it may lead to staff having to go off work as “close contacts” for 14 days

9/ The knock on effect for waiting lists could be significant.

10/ Mortality rates due to Covid internationally are hard to compare. A number of countries have shown very little excess mortality for 2020 compared to other years. This seems difficult to follow given the fact that over a million people have died so far.

11/ But how deaths are reported differs from country to country. Dying due to Covid is one way to report it (images from ICUs of patients lying prone on ventilators), but other countries report dying with Covid as a Covid death.

12/ The death, as tragic as any death is, may have had nothing to do with Covid. This adds to the confusion and perhaps adds to the growing debate that’s happening in media and socks media (with, in my opinion, too much anger vented between those who’s opinions differ)

13/ I don’t believe that any government or public health body is hell bent on absolute power and control. What would be their motivation ? They’d hardly “benefit” from the pending recession, unemployment, and businesses unable to ever reopen due to two lockdowns.

14/ I think they fear being “wrong”. They fear that any death due to Covid will be put on them, said to be their failure to implement policies to protect people. I think they feel that the non Covid devastation that’s happening coming down the line they will deal with later.

15/ This isn’t an approach I would agree with. Personally I think we must do better to live with the virus rather than lockdown over and over again.

16/ It’s wonderful that level 5 still permits our children to go to school, but we have to get other parts of peoples’ lives and livelihoods back on track as well.

17/ I’m sure I’ve left out many other possible interpretations of this whole Covid minefield.