Trinh Profile picture
3 Nov, 12 tweets, 5 min read
Guess which country is doing best??? Indonesia!!! ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป Told you, this Omnibus Law is a good thing despite all the negative op eds.
IDR not doing badly either!!!
Equities also amongst the best in a month!
Op ed on why the Omnibus Bill is a good thing (Jokowi signed to law & unions challenging). If you think it isn't, please say why. I mean, what's so great about Indonesia labor & environmental law now that needs to be sustained? The economy needs reforms.

asiatimesfinancial.com/protecting-fewโ€ฆ
Changes proposed (details depending on implementation). The key objection about this is the labor & environmental part but they raised the fines of environmental damage. Issue for some is that they centralize decision making, which I think is necessary. Indonesia needs to change!
People are like the Omnibus Bill will DILUTE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION. How? First, is it even good in the first place? Absolutely not.

Have u heard of deforestation for palm oil & the burning etc? Yes, u get smog in Singapore from this annual feat. I mean, don't get me started.
Beyond badly managed environmental issues like deforestation for palm oil & the practices involved that causing hazing in the region, waste management is an issue.

So why protect & maintain such a terrible system?

channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsideโ€ฆ.
Reason for the high dependency on commodity such as palm oil is that Indonesia doesn't HAVE ENOUGH JOBS, specially manufacturing & formal jobs.

Excl agriculture, only 25% of total jobs are formal & manufacturing FDI declined despite all that supply of labor.

Needs to change.
Indonesia is the only country w/ manufacturing FDI growth DECLINING in Asia. Yes, yes, yes.

And consequence? DECLINING GLOBAL EXPORT MARKET SHARE thanks to terrible policy of restrictive FDI & rigid labor market & decentralization.

Why not change?
Let's look at all the fuss about labor unions saying the law makes people poorer etc. First, LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS TERRIBLE & only for 25% of total non agri jobs as Indonesia has 75% informal. So protection for the few.

Too rigid & amongst most in the world. Look at VN vs ID.
Why not ease policy to be in line w/ global standard & competitive vs protecting the very few w/ jobs while leaving out the rest.

Indonesia has 5% real GDP growth rates from 2013 to 2019 but reality is WORSE. Look at exports. Peaked in 2011 nominally. Look at value add. WORSE.
U're like what's DVX & FVA. It's the decomposition of gross exports & how much of that is from foreign value add (or foreigners gaining in Indo's exports) & Indo's value add by exporting intermediates used by rest of world.

BOTH ARE DOWN. NO ONE IS WINNING.

Why not change?

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More from @Trinhnomics

3 Nov
Indonesia exports (peaked in 2011 & declined since) by categories & item (yr 2019):

#1 Commodities 54% of total
#1 Coal (13% of total)
#2 Palm oil (12% of total)
#1 Coal is going out of fashion fast as countries phase out this cheap but polluting source of energy.

#2 Palm oil got pretty bad press due to deforestation & environmental issues.

So both #1 & #2 export items by Indonesia got issues in terms of growth & sustainability.

So?
Indonesia needs to CHANGE. As a country of 273 million people that'll grow to 331 by 2050 or 21% growth rate, it can't have its #1 & #2 export items to be COAL & PALM OIL.

That's natural resource competitiveness that's going out of style & not to mention unsustainable.

People
Read 13 tweets
3 Nov
A lot of people use 538 for their research reports etc & the assumption of a Biden complete takeover or "Blue Wave", meaning taking Congress. Anyway, we'll find out if Nate Silver redeems himself or wrong once more.

Here are some of the stats for tomorrow.
Trump MUST TAKE FLORIDA to be in the race or it will be an early call. Florida closes the poll at 7pm or 8am HKT. As 9 million votes casted & counted, the counting will be fast & likely within a couple hours.

So I expect to know Florida by 10am HKT.
Used 538 to brief traders/etc in 2016 & won't be using it again but as most people on the street uses it & good to know where they stand as people care about what Nate says even if he was wrong.

Texas, another Trump has to take. Assume he takes Florida, Texas poll closes 9amHKT
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
This kid says to a mother who carried him to term, gave birth to him & raise him because she is voting Trump. Says a lot about the brain washing that kid must feel morally justified to mistreat his own mom.

Anyone who tells me this, I say good riddance

reut.rs/3eintYS
These are the same kind of people that for likes from strangers they would disown their own family over identity politics.

Pew Research Center found that nearly 80% of Trump and Biden supporters said they had few or no friends who supported the other candidate.

Isnโ€™t that nuts?
Makes me wonder if the people are increasingly fragile or their real life relationships are. I cannot for the life of me think of anyone in my life where theyโ€™d behaved this way.

Disowning ur family over a view over politicians who basically lie all the time to gain power? Nuts
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
It's Monday & we have votes, or precisely 95.5 millions already voted or 44-34% Dem/Rep. The spread in Florida is tightening 8.62M TOTAL (39.1-38% Dem/Rep)
4.64M Mail (45-31% Dem/Rep)
4.28M In Person (45-32% Rep/Dem)

Trump has to take Florida to win & chances aren't negligible.
The gap b/n Biden & Trump is the same as Hillary & say Trump takes Florida & Texas, then he got 192 electoral votes & the race is not that far apart as polls make it seem like, esp if he takes GA, NC & Ohio, which'd be 241 vs 258 Biden.
And if Trump takes Arizona + Pennsylvania then he wins. That's 272.

Meaning, just like 2016, this is not a shoe-in for Biden even if it seems so as Biden lead in polls is pretty high but polls DON'T VOTE. People do.

Not an easy path but there's one.
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
I'm reading about polls (we actually have votes now as it is T-4) so polls increasingly less important.

What do you know about polls? As in how they are done? Let me summarize this article I read on why u should be skeptical

politico.com/news/magazine/โ€ฆ
In 2016, Arie Kapteyn (Dutch Economist for USC) & Robert Cahaly (Republican pollster for Trafalgar Group) saw Trump coming while others didn't as they predicted Trump getting Penn, Michigan, FLorida & NC & he won all.

Let's talk about how they think current polls underestimate.
3 factors they discuss that u should know:
1) Existing polls that use PHONE is outdate b/c who has time to answer 23 mins of phone conversation & tell someone what they really think if they're a Trump supported & so people answer are EXTREME or BORED. Short & anonymous is better.
Read 13 tweets
30 Oct
Good morning! It's Friday, last night the US reported +33.1% QoQ SaaR growth from -31.4%. As we know this number is useless in the fact that Q2 & Q3 were unique in their seasonal sense & can't be extrapolated/annualized to think that Q3 will persist.

So? %YoY GDP rose -2.9%YoY
Taking into account the -9%YoY of Q2 & +0.3% of Q1 then we have an average three quarters growth of -3.9%YoY.

In other words, Q4 will determine whether the US will contract by only a small single digit or as consensus forecast of -4%.
Jobless claims are falling a bit (talking about stock of continuing claims & existing home sales pretty strong on a %YoY). That said, the question is how needy the economy of more stimulus (2nd fiscal package not passed) & whether states will suppress activities & dampen growth.
Read 6 tweets

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