In 2016:
- 57 million people voted early, absentee or by-mail.
- 80 million voted on Election Day
So far in 2020:
- 100 mil voted early, absentee or by-mail
The two big questions:
- how many of those 100 mil are new/unlikely voters?
- what will today’s turnout be?
1/
- 57 million people voted early, absentee or by-mail.
- 80 million voted on Election Day
So far in 2020:
- 100 mil voted early, absentee or by-mail
The two big questions:
- how many of those 100 mil are new/unlikely voters?
- what will today’s turnout be?
1/
https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1323547274128035840
In a way, Trump is already in a lose-lose situation.
1) He needs a very big turnout today
Thanks to his rhetoric about mail-in voting, his base overwhelmingly skews toward in-person voting this year
2/
1) He needs a very big turnout today
Thanks to his rhetoric about mail-in voting, his base overwhelmingly skews toward in-person voting this year
2/
But...
2) If today’s turnout exceeds 40 mil votes (only 1/2 of 2016’s Election Day total), 2020 turnout will have exceeded 2016 turnout.
And that favors Biden.
There are only so many white male/no college voters in the country and that’s the only demo DJT is winning handily.
2) If today’s turnout exceeds 40 mil votes (only 1/2 of 2016’s Election Day total), 2020 turnout will have exceeded 2016 turnout.
And that favors Biden.
There are only so many white male/no college voters in the country and that’s the only demo DJT is winning handily.
Trump needed a low-turnout election.
He won in 2016 by suppressing enthusiasm for HRC (and suppressing voting)
He has been desperately trying to suppress voting in 2020.
We appear on track for at least 150 mil+ votes cast. Maybe 160 mil.
A 10-20 mil total increase over 2016.
He won in 2016 by suppressing enthusiasm for HRC (and suppressing voting)
He has been desperately trying to suppress voting in 2020.
We appear on track for at least 150 mil+ votes cast. Maybe 160 mil.
A 10-20 mil total increase over 2016.
That is the doomsday scenario for Trump - and for Republicans overall.
“Too many” people are voting.
Rs have held power in places like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas by preventing that in the past.
And that is why my own little prediction map has all three going blue.
5/
“Too many” people are voting.
Rs have held power in places like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas by preventing that in the past.
And that is why my own little prediction map has all three going blue.
5/
Good morning. Rise and shine.
It’s going to be A DAY.
Show me what democracy looks like!
6/6
It’s going to be A DAY.
Show me what democracy looks like!
6/6
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