Thread by @TheRealHoarse

I’m just going to open this as a single thread for general election-related chatter rather than clog your timelines.

Let us commence chatting...

1/

MSNBC showing early returns in Florida. Early voting and vote by mail.

Biden - as expected due to dem skew in early/mail voting - is doing better than HRC did in 2016 in every county.

Based on how much vote remains, Biden looking very competitive in FL so far.

More importantly, I’ve been keeping my eyes peeled for any early signs of weakness like we... shudder... saw in 2016.

So far, all is as expected or positive.

I already feel better about FL than I did in 2016 at this point - and he doesn’t need FL.

Miami-Dade numbers quite weak for Biden so far. Not unexpected. There was known weakness there.

Dems usually run it up in Miami-Dade. Biden isn’t on pace there.

And that foreseeable eventuality is why I didn’t have FL in the win column.

FL is a toss-up overall though.

The Cuban-American pop in Miami-Dade wasn’t swinging Biden’s way.

That wasn’t a secret. The “socialist” attack works.

If he misses in FL, it will be because of the shortfall there.

The good news: that isn’t an issue in... GA, TX or AZ.

Seeing some folks getting really anxious in the replies.

Breathe deep. It’s okay.

Florida is a bellweather more than anything else. It gives us a potential window into how polling is holding up.

Biden doesn’t need Florida - at all.

We want it to be no worse than close.

So far, so good.

If Biden was trailing the poll expectations significantly, I’d be worried.

If he was trailing the polling significantly AND the weakness was anywhere BUT Miami-Dade, I’d be more worried.

A shortfall in Miami-Dade made up elsewhere is actually a positive sign.

Basically, if Biden underperforms in Miami-Dade but still keeps it close, that suggests he is faring well with populations more analogous to other states than Miami-Dade’s.

So, hold off on freaking out.

It’s super early. Deep breaths. Get up and walk around. Stretch.

Alright, let’s give FL a little time to get more vote in.

As the first reporting state, we’re seeing how this vote-by-mail/early voting/day-of reporting is going to go.

No point getting tweaked until we get closer to 100% reported.

Again, Trump needs FL; Biden doesn’t.

I’m going to let FL sit for a bit.

A bunch of other states called for Trump or Biden. All obvious. No surprises.

Biden - VA, MD, DC, NJ, etc.

Trump - IN, KY, etc.

Boring. All expected.

Starting to see early votes in from Texas.

One note as you’re watching:

When they report vote percentages, that only tells half the story.

There was vastly more turnout overall.

So, for example, with Harris County’s high turnout, even winning by the same margin as HRC helps.