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The Economist

3 Nov, 11 tweets, 4 min read

Which races to watch, the role of postal votes and what happens if Donald Trump declares victory prematurely—our overview for election night. THREAD (1/11) econ.st/2HQyJQL

The state that matters most on Tuesday night is Florida. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck there (2/11) econ.st/3kVjG6y

Other races to watch closely are: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan (3/11)

We calculated the probability of either candidate winning the election if he wins one of these key states (4/11) econ.st/3oTzCss

Though our election forecast puts Joe Biden in the lead, Donald Trump could still find a path to victory (5/11) econ.st/3mLHQAU

In the past, postal votes have been counted late, leading to a late "blue shift", as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail (6/11)

This year, because of the pandemic, nearly 100m Americans have voted early—twice as many as in 2016. The high rejection rate of postal ballots could be a disadvantage to Democrats (7/11) econ.st/3kVlpJ4

The Economist's final forecast gives Joe Biden a better-than-19-in-20 chance of winning the electoral college (8/11) econ.st/3kW0l4X

News reports have suggested Donald Trump might try to call the results early or reject the result, a claim the president denies (9/11)

What happens if he rejects the result? We asked professor of law, Lawrence Douglas, for his view (10/11) econ.st/2TRvF97

Whatever the result of the election, Donald Trump's presidency is sure to have a lasting impact. What is his legacy? (11/11) econ.st/2HR77eh

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