Woke up to a beautiful sunrise today.
Joe Biden is likely to win. The nightmare of the Trump years could be about to end. I’m feeling optimistic.
But it would be a mistake to count Trump out. So what might the electoral map look like if he wins? Here’s two scenarios.
[Thread]
Joe Biden is likely to win. The nightmare of the Trump years could be about to end. I’m feeling optimistic.
But it would be a mistake to count Trump out. So what might the electoral map look like if he wins? Here’s two scenarios.
[Thread]
Every poll makes assumptions about turnout and demographics. And each year, different pollsters tend to make similar assumptions.
A few of these have me especially worried.
A few of these have me especially worried.
1)
Polls show a big shift towards Biden among white and older voters.
Perhaps they are overstating the shift? Or perhaps turnout among the white working-class once again shatters expectations?
Either way, Trump could win the Midwest, and the map would look similar to 2016.
Polls show a big shift towards Biden among white and older voters.
Perhaps they are overstating the shift? Or perhaps turnout among the white working-class once again shatters expectations?
Either way, Trump could win the Midwest, and the map would look similar to 2016.
2)
Polls show a shift towards Trump among younger and non-white voters.
Perhaps this is a bigger trend than pollsters can imagine?
In that case, Trump might lose much of the Midwest but win by unexpectedly picking up purple states with a higher Latino population like CO + AZ.
Polls show a shift towards Trump among younger and non-white voters.
Perhaps this is a bigger trend than pollsters can imagine?
In that case, Trump might lose much of the Midwest but win by unexpectedly picking up purple states with a higher Latino population like CO + AZ.
Of course, these errors could also go the other way!
Perhaps pollsters are underestimating the shift towards Biden among whites and the elderly and/or overestimating turnout among the white working-class.
In which case, we *might* just be looking at something like this.
Perhaps pollsters are underestimating the shift towards Biden among whites and the elderly and/or overestimating turnout among the white working-class.
In which case, we *might* just be looking at something like this.
In short, a comfortable Biden win is likely. But an upset victory for Trump or a landslide we haven't seen in decades are also real possibilities.
We'll have to wait and see.
In the meanwhile, let's try to stay level-headed. (And vote!)
[End.]
persuasion.community/p/yascha-mounk…
We'll have to wait and see.
In the meanwhile, let's try to stay level-headed. (And vote!)
[End.]
persuasion.community/p/yascha-mounk…
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