Share this page!

Yascha Mounk Profile picture
Twitter logo
5 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Enough of the doom and gloom.

Incumbent presidents nearly always win reelection. Authoritarian populists nearly always win reelection.

Neither seems to be happening right now.

I'm starting to feel pretty damn good about America today.
Is this the grand univocal rejection of Trumpism many of us hoped for? No.

But the United States is doing better than Poland, Hungary, Turkey, India and so many other countries that were in a similar predicament.

It's time to take yes for an answer!
Why am I so much more optimistic today? Because of my baseline.

I've been arguing for years that populists have broad support and are a grave threat to democracy around the world. The fight will go on after today. That shouldn't be surprising.

But we just won a giant battle.
Also, perhaps y'all just need a nap?

Sleep deprivation is a downer. I am feeling much better after mine!

:)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Yascha Mounk

Yascha Mounk Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Yascha_Mounk

Yascha Mounk Profile picture
6 Nov
Ted Cruz is now on Fox News claiming that election officials in Philadelphia are "lawless," trying to conceal what's going on in order to potentially steal the election.

Utterly irresponsible.
"I'm frustrated that every time they close the doors and shut off the lights, they miraculously find more Democratic votes."

Cruz is angry, ranty, shouty.

Nearly like he's auditioning to replace Trump.
The contrast between highly responsible news anchors like Chris Wallace and completely irresponsible pundits like Tucker and Hannity is really astounding.

Right now, the divide between the reality-based community and Trump's fantasy world runs straight through Fox News.
Read 5 tweets
Yascha Mounk Profile picture
3 Nov
Woke up to a beautiful sunrise today.

Joe Biden is likely to win. The nightmare of the Trump years could be about to end. I’m feeling optimistic.

But it would be a mistake to count Trump out. So what might the electoral map look like if he wins? Here’s two scenarios.

[Thread]
Every poll makes assumptions about turnout and demographics. And each year, different pollsters tend to make similar assumptions.

A few of these have me especially worried.
1)
Polls show a big shift towards Biden among white and older voters.

Perhaps they are overstating the shift? Or perhaps turnout among the white working-class once again shatters expectations?

Either way, Trump could win the Midwest, and the map would look similar to 2016. Image
Read 6 tweets
Yascha Mounk Profile picture
2 Nov
Four years ago, I was more pessimistic than most: I never assumed the institutions would contain Trump.

Now, I'm more optimistic than many: If Biden wins, we are likely to have a relatively peaceful transition of power.

My latest @JoinPersuasion.

THREAD persuasion.community/p/yascha-mounk…
It’s now difficult to remember how outlandish the position that "established" democracies could come under threat once was.

When Roberto Foa and I first showed a famous mentor our paper on deconsolidation, he strongly disagreed with the idea that democracy might be in danger.
But now, pessimism has become fashionable:

Pundits routinely warn of an impending civil war or worry that Donald Trump will carry out a putsch.

Here’s why that’s unlikely.
Read 12 tweets
Yascha Mounk Profile picture
31 Oct
Donald Trump's performance on Covid has been terrible, and America has suffered deeply.

It is now also clear, though, that Europe is not doing significantly better.

Is this because:

1) European political leadership is just as bad?

2) Leadership doesn't matter that much?

3) ?
For those doubting the empirical premise:

Europe currently has way more cases and recent deaths than the U.S. Its cumulative deaths remain lower, but the gap is quickly closing.

(Of course, this may change again in a few months. But for now, that's where we stand. Via @ft.)
Some of the best answers:

1) Higher population density in Europe.

2) *Some* European governments very bad.

3) Winter wave hit earlier in Europe; U.S. will do worse in long-run.

All plausible. But eight months into this pandemic, some epistemic humility would behoove us all.
Read 4 tweets
Yascha Mounk Profile picture
26 Oct
Illiberalism on the left is a real problem.

But voting for Donald Trump to stem the rising tide of illiberalism would be a huge moral and strategic mistake.

My latest @TheAtlantic.

[Thread.]
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Yes, some Dems are too reluctant to oppose left-wing political violence and call out Antifa.

And yes, some on the left are too willing to support censorship in social media, advocate for employees to be fired for conservative views, and to cheer on attacks on free speech.

But..
1)
Trump presents a serious danger to constitutional values.

His bark is much, much louder than his bite. But his actual actions in office have also been utterly unacceptable.

Any voter genuinely concerned about the rise of illiberal forces must wish to remove him from office.
Read 8 tweets
Yascha Mounk Profile picture
1 Oct
The boss of the NYT op-ed page was fired because he ran a controversial op-ed by a sitting U.S. Senator.

But a few months later, a propagandist for an authoritarian regime gets to argue that a violent putdown of peaceful protests was needed in the same pages.

This is just nuts. Image
I did not like Cotton's op-ed.

And there is a case for turning the NYT op-ed page into a venue that fights for liberal democratic values rather than printing all the opinion that's newsworthy.

But the hypocrisy here is just staggering.
It is also one of the best examples of, um, systemic racism in American journalism:

Want to advocate for brutal measures that might affect American lives? No way.

Want to advocate for brutal measures that destroy lives in Asia or Africa? Welcome to our pages!
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @Yascha_Mounk