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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

3 Nov

How did more people vote early in Texas than voted in total in any other election in the state's history? Huge surges in turnout from every race/ethnic group except white, non-college voters, whose turnout is still 282,446 votes behind 2016 levels.

Here's the thing - given the fact that every other group has surpassed 2016 turnout, 471,747 more white non-college voters would have to vote in Texas tomorrow just for that group to match their 2016 electorate share... if literally no one but white non-college voters turned out.

To state the obvious, that won't happen. Large numbers of Black, Latino, Asian, and other voters of color, as well as white college educated voters will cast a ballot on Election Day. What's more, simply matching 2016 vote shares is likely not enough for Trump.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

2 Nov

Here are some of my topline thoughts on the historic early vote as we head into Election Day. I'll tweet out some more granular thoughts this evening and into tomorrow if I have a few minutes.
insights.targetsmart.com/early-vote-wra…

What stands out the most: the white non-college vote share underperforms their '16 share by 8.5 pts. That's 12.5M votes behind in the battlegrounds. And it's not because they stayed home, it's because voters of color and white college educated voters came out in massive numbers.

And here's the thing, it's not like just getting back to 2016 vote shares would be enough for Trump. We know he is underperforming '16 support levels with key groups, meaning his challenge is to actually surpass 2016 turnout shares.

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Tom Bonier

@tbonier

31 Oct

Can we talk about the Bloomberg "freakout article"?

First, I'll say that a little freaking out is good. This election is far from over. The winner will be decided based on the actions of tens of millions of voters across the country over the next 4 days. But we should also be clear-eyed about the landscape.

First, yes, the vote share of black and latino voters in battleground states is currently slightly behind where they were at this point in time in '16. 1.1 points among Black voters and 0.3 behind for Latino voters.

Read 9 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

29 Oct

FL: 1,775,374 ballots have been cast by voters who didn't turn out in the '16 general election. That's 26.2% of all ballots cast so far.

Registered Dems have a 9 pt advantage among these surge voters, as compared to a 2 pt advantage with those early voters who did vote in '16.

This suggests that the GOP turnout is more skewed towards likely voters in Florida so far, while Dems have been more successful turning out new voters.

In Arizona, where an astounding 1 in 3 early votes have been cast by people who did not vote in 2016, Dems have a lead among these surge voters of 6.5 pts, as compared to a 1.7 pt lead among those early voters who cast a ballot in '16.

Read 4 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

29 Oct

In 6 battleground states, black voters over the age of 65 have already exceeded their overall 2016 turnout numbers, thereby already setting turnout records with 6 days still remaining: AZ, FL, GA, NC, NV, TX.

In NC, GA, and TX Asian voters have already surpassed their 2016 overall turnout numbers, also setting turnout records with 6 days remaining. What's more, in AZ, FL, MI, and NV Asian seniors have surpassed their 2016 total vote numbers.

It's impossible to attribute these turnout surges to anything definitively, but some thoughts:
- Representation matters. Senator Kamala Harris has seemingly engaged AAPI voters, a group who historically have voted at very low rates.

Read 4 tweets

Tom Bonier

@tbonier

27 Oct

The idea that you can't learn anything from the early vote is silly. Can you predict who is going to win? Absolutely not. But we have answered two very important broad questions already by assessing the early vote:

1) Will turnout be high?
The answer here is clearly yes. We've sailed past 2016 early vote totals, with a week remaining. Yes, a big part of this is due to the pandemic. But the fact that 1 in 4 of these early voters didn't vote in '16 points towards very high overall turnout.

2) Are Democrats energized?
Yes. In some states, core Dem constituencies have already surpassed their TOTAL turnout in the '16 election. We not only know Dems are showing up, from the early vote we can assess relative intensity among subgroups.

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