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3 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
I don't put much emphasis on predicting elections like I did years ago given the importance of voting rights & institutional reform, but here are my guesses for 2020.

Barring SCOTUS interference, Biden wins & Dems get a narrow Senate majority & expand their House majority to 250
270 to win cut off the titles, so the first map is Electoral College, second is Senate, third is governors, fourth is House
I haven't been following individual races as closely as I'd like, but I would bet that Dems flip the following state legislative chambers:
AZ both
MI House
MN Senate
TX House

And Dems winning more support but GOP wins gerrymandered majorities in
GA
NC
PA
WI

GOP regains AK House
This could happen in Texas, but it's important to remember that gerrymandering still wastes votes by packing in safe seats even when it sometimes fails in cracked seats.

I'd strongly bet that Dems would win more congressional seats nationally in 2020 without GOP gerrymandering
Just as with high turnout not being a sign that voter suppression doesn't exist, Dems winning the U.S. House & some key state legislatures this year doesn't mean GOP gerrymandering doesn't hurt Dems.

It just means Dems were nevertheless able to overcome those very real barrieres

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Nov
Last night was an utter catastrophe for stopping GOP gerrymandering next year. GOP is poised to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, likely closer to the latter number. That's similar to the GOP's 5:1 advantage after 2010. AZ, MI, PA legislatures still uncalled ImageImage
With GOP's radical 6-3 Supreme Court majority, the court could strike down ballot initiatives, state supreme court rulings, & possibly even governor vetoes that block GOP gerrymanders at its most extreme.

This would cement GOP minority rule across the country. 2022 may be awful
GOP in lawsuits ongoing in many states over voting rules argue that only the literal state legislature may set federal election laws, blocking ballot initiatives & state supreme courts. Independent commissions in AZ, CA, & MI may be struck down & worse dailykos.com/story/2020/10/…
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
4 Nov
1. We're going to call it a night soon, but here's a thread on where things stand:

Biden may still win the Electoral College, but Dems are on track to not take the Senate despite getting more votes nationally just like the last several cycles.

GOP minority rule is our reality
2. Redistricting seems nothing short of a bloodbath for Dems. Dems aren't poised to make inroads against the GOP's current large advantage, & with the GOP's 6-3 SCOTUS majority likely soon to overrule Dem state supreme courts, it may be 2010 all over again

Minority rule, again
3. Joe Biden could be elected president, but without the Senate, there's a massive risk that he becomes a failed president unable to appoint any judges or enact any progressive policies. This is because of what would likely be a minority rule GOP Senate.

Our democracy is failing
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
3 Nov
Intentional sabotage by the Trump administration. Election mail is just a tiny fraction of the Postal Service’s day-to-day mail volume & it alone wouldn’t be cause for delays
Relatedly
Trump is sabotaging mail delivery service in an attempt to invalidate largely Dem ballots. We've seemingly avoided the worst Election Day problems, but it isn't over yet
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
2 Nov
Huge win: GOP-appointed federal judge refuses GOP's request to throw out 127,00 drive-thru votes that were ALREADY CAST in Texas' largest county.

GOP has gone to new extremes trying to suppress votes in Texas, & this was rightly rejected
Texas GOP already blocked no-excuse mail voting for voters under age 65 (elderly voters favor GOP), limited counties to just 1 location for returning mail ballots regardless of population, & blocked mask mandate for in-person voting

They've tried to stop Dem voting by any method
From the federal judge who just rejected the GOP's insane lawsuit to throw out 127,000 ballots that were already cast by drive-thru in Texas' largest county. GOP activists could appeal, but they could lose once more given how extreme their case is
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
1 Nov
1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:

I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.
3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.
Read 33 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
30 Oct
NEW: This map shows how 9 of 99 state legislatures have GOP minority rule where Dems won more votes than the GOP in the last election but no majorities. The GOP gerrymandered MI, NC, PA, & WI, while MN has court-drawn maps. Without minority rule here, Dems would have full control
GOP minority rule is key to Trump's bid to overturn the 2020 election results. GOP is trying to get SCOTUS to suppress votes & throw out mail ballots counted post-Election Day using a radical legal theory that only legislatures can set election law free from state judicial review
It isn't just these 5 states with GOP minority rule. The GOP holds the presidency & U.S. Senate despite getting millions fewer votes than Dems. 5 GOP SCOTUS justices were confirmed by senates where the GOP majority represented fewer Americans than Dems dailykos.com/story/2020/10/…
Read 4 tweets

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