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1 Nov, 33 tweets, 30 min read
1/33 Sorry for long thread, but I want to post this before E-Day:

I've worked for years on an unfinished project to draw nonpartisan congressional maps for every state to analyze gerrymandering. This map shows the 2016 pres margin by hypothetical district. State maps to follow.
2/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Alabama congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#AL02 & #AL07). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate a VRA liability.
3/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arizona congressional map.
4/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Arkansas congressional map. Second map shows how #AR02 could be drawn to elect Black voters' chosen candidates.
5/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan California congressional map. Second map keeps Kings County whole in #CA21.
6/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Colorado congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Connecticut congressional map.
7/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Florida congressional map drawn to comply with state Fair Districts Amendment. Second map uses Tallahassee instead of Gainesville to comply with the FDA. Third map map ignores the Fair Districts Amendment & just uses Voting Rights Act requirements.
8/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Georgia congressional map drawn to comply with Voting Rights Act section 5 liability that existed in 2011 for #GA12. Second map ignores VRA section 5 for #GA12.
9/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Idaho congressional map. I spent little time on this state given trivial partisan impact & the existing map isn't terrible given alternatives. Relatedly, I did not draw a different Hawaii map since the actual one is about as ideal as can be drawn.
10/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Illinois congressional map. Second map draws a second Latino district with #IL03.
11/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Indiana congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Iowa congressional map.
12/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Kansas congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Kentucky congressional map.
13/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Louisiana congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#LA02 & #LA06). Second map shows two Black-majority districts to illustrate VRA liability.
14/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Maryland congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Maine congressional map.
15/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Massachusetts congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Minnesota congressional map.
16/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Michigan congressional map. Second map shows alternate Grand Rapids configuration. Third map shows alternate western and central Michigan configuration.
17/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Mississippi congressional map with one Voting Rights Act district #MS02. Second map shows attempt at two Voting Rights Act districts by drawing a Black-opportunity #MS03.
18/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Missouri congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Nebraska congressional map. Second Nebraska map prioritizes county integrity over compactness/demographic cohesiveness.
19/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan New Hampshire congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Nevada congressional map.
20/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan New Jersey congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan New Mexico congressional map.
21/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan New York congressional map. Second map ignores Voting Rights Act section 5 liability that existed in 2011 for #NY07 in New York City.
22/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan North Carolina congressional map drawn in compliance with Voting Rights Act section 5 liability for #NC01 that existed in 2011. Second map ignores section 5. Third map draws an additional Black-opportunity district with #NC08.
23/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Ohio congressional map. Second map places Canton in #OH07 instead of #OH06.
24/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Oklahoma congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Oregon congressional map.
25/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Pennsylvania congressional map. Second map draws a second Voting Rights Act district with #PA02.
26/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Rhode Island congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Tennessee congressional map.
27/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan South Carolina congressional map with two Voting Rights Act districts (#SC05 & #SC06). Second map draws two Black-majority districts to illustrate VRA liability.
28/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Texas congressional map. Second map draws an alternate west Houston configuration.
29/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Virginia congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan Utah congressional map.
30/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Washington congressional map. Hypothetical nonpartisan West Virginia congressional map.
31/33 Hypothetical nonpartisan Wisconsin congressional map. Second map prioritizes county integrity over demographic cohesiveness. These are the last state maps in this thread.
32/33 This map shows how nearly every Southern state could have drawn an additional congressional district after the 2010 census to elect the candidate preferences of Black or Latino voters but chose not to. Several maps have since been struck down & redrawn but many haven't.
33/33 I've finished drawing the district maps—find the files here: drive.google.com/drive/folders/…

2nd link shows the presidential results & demographics by district in a spreadsheet that I'll update for 2020: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

I'm hoping to publish everything extensively in 2021

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
30 Oct
NEW: This map shows how 9 of 99 state legislatures have GOP minority rule where Dems won more votes than the GOP in the last election but no majorities. The GOP gerrymandered MI, NC, PA, & WI, while MN has court-drawn maps. Without minority rule here, Dems would have full control
GOP minority rule is key to Trump's bid to overturn the 2020 election results. GOP is trying to get SCOTUS to suppress votes & throw out mail ballots counted post-Election Day using a radical legal theory that only legislatures can set election law free from state judicial review
It isn't just these 5 states with GOP minority rule. The GOP holds the presidency & U.S. Senate despite getting millions fewer votes than Dems. 5 GOP SCOTUS justices were confirmed by senates where the GOP majority represented fewer Americans than Dems dailykos.com/story/2020/10/…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
30 Oct
Corrected: Albany, CA, a city of 20,000 in the Bay Area, could adopt proportional representation via single-transferable vote (aka ranked-choice voting in multi-member districts) for city races next week ballotpedia.org/Albany,_Califo…
Ireland uses this electoral system for its parliament, & Cambridge, MA has used it locally for many decades. It used to be more common in local politics following the Progressive era, but as @jacksantucci's research has shown, many cities such as NYC abandoned it in the mid-1900s
A handful of other localities have adopted proportional representation (STV) over the last several years, but if Albany CA does it next week, it would be the first to use a ballot initiative to adopt it for city council since the mid-1900s according to @Rob_Richie
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
29 Oct
Pennsylvania isn't the only state: Minnesota GOP has filed a lawsuit to segregate ballots that are postmarked by Election Day & received a few days after so that they can try to potentially throw them out afterward. MN's Supreme Court is Dem, so they'll likely appeal to SCOTUS
This confirms @rickhasen's argument yesterday that PA Dems agreed to segregate postmarked ballots that arrive after Election Day—enabling SCOTUS to potentially throw them out—to avoid giving the GOP a pretext to throw out ALL mail ballots & award electoral votes directly to Trump
Tell everyone you can: Don't return your ballot by mail if you haven't already. The best way you can avoid SCOTUS trying to throw out your vote is by returning it in-person at a dropbox, polling place, or election office, & if that's unallowed, vote (early if possible) in-person
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
28 Oct
A massive bullet dodged, but this ruling still saw 3 GOP-appointed justices try to blow up federalism in order to effectively end judicial review & let gerrymandered legislatures run roughshod over voting rights.

This issue may not be over though & could extend past E-Day
Here's the link to the ruling. Kavanaugh & Roberts sided with the three liberals
Folks, we're not out of the woods yet on this. The Supreme Court could still decide on the merits after Election Day to throw out valid votes that were postmarked by Election Day & received shortly afterward. But at least they haven't done it yet
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
28 Oct
New CNU poll finds Virginia voters poised to adopt a bipartisan redistricting commission by a 54-24 margin. Check out our Election Night guide where we're following every key type of election that is likely to affect partisan control of 2020s redistricting cnu.edu/wasoncenter/su…
I have mixed feelings on Virginia's redistricting reform measure, but overall I advocate voting yes. It has some major flaws & I don't support Dems unilaterally disarming for Congress, but it should ensure relatively fair legislative maps. More on it here dailykos.com/stories/2020/3…
VA is the only one of three 2020 redistricting measures that voters should back. MO GOP's measure is a partisan power grab & NJ Dems' measure shortchanges Latinos/Asians to protect white Dems from parimares. Dems can negate VA unilateral disarmament by passing reform in Congress
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
27 Oct
This is voter intimidation. This is the same state where Trump’s “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” tweet incited far-right extremists to unsuccessfully try to kidnap & murder the Dem governor. Trump has already urged his supporters to intimidate voters in Detroit & other heavily Black cities
Jesus Christ, now Trump is downplaying the domestic terrorists who plotted to kidnap & murder a sitting Democratic governor. It’s like the president wants another civil war & doesn’t give a damn about the consequences of opening up a massive can of worms
This. There is no reason whatsoever to allow guns at polling places other than to intimidate voters & instigate violence, & yet that's just what these GOP plaintiffs got a Michigan state court to allow by overturning the Dem secretary of state's rule
Read 4 tweets

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