Thread by @DavMicRot

Here is what I will be looking for as the data comes into tonight (1) Has Biden clearly won "swing" states he is up by a lot: MN, WI, MI, NE-2 are key (2) Has Biden won NV (tighter polls, but DEM regularly overperforms): if he wins these states, he has 260 electoral votes.

(3) If that goes Biden's way he just needs one of 7 states: PA, AZ, NC, FL, GA, OH, TX. Every state I did not name is either gravy for Biden or he is fucked if it is in play. Here is the little spreadsheet I made to keep track of EV if/when I get flustered. Probability is crude.

For senate there are 3 seats in play that I will be watching closely to make sure Democrats get to 50: ME, MI, NC. That is assuming Democrats will also take AZ, CO. After that it is a race to get 51 or 52 seats: they really need 52 seats to make sure to pass key legislation.

Possible 51 or 52nd seats: GA, GA, IA, MT, SC, followed by KS, AK, TX. Again, I find that networks are bad at keeping the key score sheet, so I will update this periodically as the night progresses.

We have done our best, now all we can do it wait to see our fate.

Nothing we have seen yet has updated my view yet. I had Florida as 50-60% for Biden, and that seems sounds so far.

Check that: Florida swings towards Trump with Miami-Dade early vote. Florida is still in play, but now definitely leaning towards Trump: 70-80% for Trump?

Good thing for Democrats: this was somewhat expected concern with south Florida Hispanics, and there no concern about what it says about the rest of the country or maybe, the rest of the state (hence Biden still in hunt in Florida, despite bad numbers from Miami-Dade).

Obvious important reminder: Biden does not need to win Florida, but it would have been nice.

Demographic trends from Florida bad for Biden in Florida (Trump killing it with Cubans in south Florida), but decent for him in MidWest (Biden doing well with old White people).

Reminder: what Biden needs is to hold places with big leads and get PA, AZ, NC, or GA. We don't have much of an update on this yet. Lot's of data will start to roll in at 8 PM ET.

One of the states Biden needed to hold, NV, looking very good according to @RalstonReports who knowns NV well.

Going back to first Tweet of this thread. Biden needs: MN, NV, NE-2, WI, MI + 1 other state. These Midwestern + NV are still good. Which means he needs: PA, AZ, NC, GA, OH, or TX. Assume FL unlikely, and GA tough. But, NC similar to VA, which went quick to Biden.

And, PA also looking decent with strength of white vote vote so far. OH is a reach but also decent so far. Not much info yet on AZ.

TX, which was the biggest reach of all of these starts out strong for Biden. Also may be good sign for AZ.

Biden is not going to win TX, but certainty closes to gap from Clinton, probably below Beto? Biggest worry is near the border: is Biden doing poorly with Hispanics across the country? Was hoping this was just Florida.

Bottom line is that Biden's insurance policies are not coming in: this is not dramatically changing what I have been saying all night but puts more and more pressure on MidWest, which were his most likely path and looking really good.

Biden needs to win the MidWest and Nevada. That was his easiest path to victory going into the night, but it is increasingly his only path to victory. He is doing great in MidWest, but again only path left. Honestly have to say this is close to 50/50 right now.

Democrats possibility of winning senate is dim. Pick-ups in AZ & CO are going to happen, but without NC their road to 50 is tight. Cannot stress this enough: without the senate Biden (if he wins) cannot do anything meaningful.

Quite frankly: normally I am better at reading returns, but with such a massive shift in early vote it is very hard for me to figure out exactly what is left anywhere ... just going to have to watch the data come in and pray for US.

For what it is worth about polling: I noted that there were just 12 states in play going into the evening, and all of the states outside that (even ones consider swingish) were called nearly instantly.

I am going for a walk: Tweet at me if anything exciting happens.

So, Biden has (I think) pulled one of the necessary extra states, but now he has to actually win MN, NV, WI, MI, and we are really lacking good information over what has and has not been counted.

Recap, started today with Biden w/ 217 in bag (all of those have been called for him, but ME). He needed to win: MN, NV, NE-2, WI, MI to get to 260 and then win 1 more. Well, he already won AZ, looking good in MN & NE-2, but still waiting on MI, WI, NV to tell us more.

If Biden falls in an of these states he still has PA, NC, IA (and maybe) GA in play. But down NC, IA, GA. Just really hard to tell what has been reported & what we are waiting on.

side-note: NYT Needle is not eliciting confidence the way it dramatically bounces around! I do not think it really knows what is left either. Which I get: it is a tough job with this crazy early vote going on.

Crazy thing is the overall outlook has not really changed that much since we started. It is just that Biden has lost his insurance policy in FL and long-bets in TX & OH.

Looking back, put the presidency at 50/50 at 9:40 PM ET and that still holds: I would be indifferent at bet at 50/50.

Democrats blow all of their money in the last few weeks of the election, when people are super hard to move. Republicans own multiple "news" stations, and the Koch Bros are constantly engaging public opinion. That is a much more effective strategy.

Democratic Party policies are 75-80% support compared with Republican Party policies. Democrats are selling coke-cola, while the Republicans are selling rat-poison: yet the elections are always sort-of close. Clearly someone needs to radically re-think the Democratic Party.

Not much surprising so far tonight.

If Arizona & Nevada hold for Biden he is at 244, but literally down in all remaining states. That being said, still super confused by PA & MI, and WI, NC, GA are all in striking distance. He would need 26 between them.

The President is an incompetent, cruel, corrupt, authoritarian, disloyal to US. We have a pandemic taking 1,000 lives per day, and economy in recession. Fact this is race is close is a shocking indictment of US.

Whatever happens, we need to keep fighting for those who are suffering & dying, for those who do not have healthcare, shelter, food, education, an opportunity for a better life. We need to keep fighting for our environment and our future. We need to fighting for all of US.

I am so tired. You are so tired. But, if we stop fighting, people are going to die, and we cannot let that happen.

Goodnight and G-d Save the Union.

Good Morning Everyone! Looks like Biden, as expected, closed the key gaps in WI, has the inside lane in MI, holding in AZ, NV: he is now the clear favorite to win this election.

While it has been somewhat painful to live through: this seesaw of Trump taking early lead and Biden roaring back as legitimate votes get counting is exactly what the number crunchers have been warning US about all along.

You really need to give credit to number crunchers who warned about this scenario, and (while the normal suck) the mainstream media who has done a good job relaying these concerns and showing the right level of uncertainty throughout the night.

Congratulations to the Democratic Party for capturing 7 of the last 8 popular votes for president! And, likely, when the votes are all counted: a very narrow victory for Biden would give them 5 of the last 8 terms in office.

Situation in senate is grim for Democrats. Going into last night clearly they would win AZ, CO, but hoped they would pick up ME, NC, and hold MI. NC looks lost, while ME is very hard road, but MI likely hold. Pick-up in GA still possible, but likely 48 or 49 is devastating blow.

If Biden holds on for win, Republican senate under #MoscowMitch will spike necessary COVID relief, electoral reform, healthcare expansion, infrastructure. Biden's hands will be tied.

I did not watch President Trump's campaign rally from the East Wing of the White House with a crowded room of maskless people, but it seems like it was a bit authoritarian.

If you went to sleep at 7 PM ET last night and woke up right now, the presidential election has played out just as expected. Margins probably a little tighter than expected, when all the votes are counted.

Markets are seeing the writing on the wall and just swung heavily towards Biden: @PredictIt now 80%, but again I think it is close to 90-95% for Biden at this point as he will likely take the lead in MI shortly and not look back.

We are all going to feel a lot more comfortable in a few minutes when Biden takes the lead in Michigan, giving him the lead in 270 Electoral Votes.

President Trump dropped any pretense of populism in 2020: he ran a fascist and will get 73 to 75 million votes (5 to 10 million less than Biden). He will likely lose now, but fact it is this close is super disconcerting for US.

There are going to be a lot typos in my Tweets this morning, I did not get a lot of sleep.

Democrats will look to pick up senate seats in 2022 in WI & PA with nothing too difficult to hold. Assume FL will also be on list, but not feeling too much like a swing state these days.

Biden now leading in 270 Electoral Votes and expect narrow leads to grow, as well as possible flips in PA & GA (which would bring him to 306), dominating popular vote.

By the power vested in me as a random dude on Twitter I demand we stop counting the votes right now and declare Biden the next president!*

*Just kidding, unlike the Republican leadership I believe in democracy and we should count every vote.

An electoral system where the party that keeps getting way less votes still holds 1/2 of the power is not ideal.

Safe to assume #MoscowMitch will hold open most court seats for next four years under President Biden. Maybe allow a few older, moderate folks in just to appease the mainstream media. But good thing mainstream media pushed Biden so hard on expanding the court, really showed US.

OK - I am being a little gloomy: Democrats may win back senate in 2 years. But, for next 2 years, at least, the Courts will *contract*, in hope for Republicans that they can *pack* them again when they eventually win the presidency again.

Senator Peters is likely to win in MI (he just took the lead!), which bring the Democrats from 47 to 48 seats (pick-up in AZ, CO, loss in AL). Possible run-off in both GA seats (one already guaranteed). Obviously this is a disappointing as Democrats hoped to pick-up NC & ME.

Going to tie up this thread by saying this was super boring: everything is going to end up basically where we thought it would be.