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Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
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4 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The market moved about 1% back and forth on a 10% swing in election odds, implying that a Biden presidency is worth a 10% higher stock market than Trump.
If you remember, the same thing happened in 2016 with the market moving against Trump odds all night until 4 am on election night when everyone decided Trump is actually good for stocks and it shot up.
putanumonit.com/2016/11/16/fli…
There's was some talk of the market pricing in a contested election in 2016 but those numbers never added up. That night in was the clearest example I've seen of the efficient market hypothesis being violated. Fortunes will be made and lost tonight as well.
Unlike 2016, in 2020 I have a Robinhood account and the 10% number seems completely off-base. Should I start live trading the election?
Decided to start drinking instead of trading which is really what I should have been doing when I worked for that really dumb hedge fund a long time ago.

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More from @yashkaf

Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
23 Oct
Everyone's blaming social media for political polarization but it wasn't hard to curate a Twitter timeline that avoids that. So now I'm getting politics shoved down my throat by dating apps, sports leagues, universities, media companies, and a fucking expense management company.
I despise this so so much. It's not serving any goal other than hate and division and a few people's sociopathic political promotion. And maybe this is biased by where I live, but 100% of it is coming from the establishment left.
Now this has nothing to do with how Biden or Trump will perform as presidents, or what laws the Senate may pass etc. "To own the libs" is a terrible motivation for voting, or for anything else. I'm trying to fight this impulse in my soul.

But they're making it really hard.
Read 4 tweets
Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
23 Oct
So the CEO of Expensify just sent an email to his 10 million customers' private emails telling them a third-party vote is a vote for civil war and dismantling democracy.
This part is pretty bizarre. Yes, this speech is protected from government coercion by the first amendment. It only goes against Expensify's TOS, customer data and privacy policies, and human decency.
I wonder if Expensify realizes that the fact that Biden is polling at 50% means that 50% of their customers are non-Biden voters. They probably don't, since if any non-Biden supporters somehow remain in their San Francisco HQ they are keeping very quiet and calling their lawyers.
Read 7 tweets
Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
13 Oct
JACOB'S THEORY OF COUPLES (a thread)

If I arranged marriages I wouldn't look for people similar on Big 5 traits or attractiveness — some things need to be matched and some complemented. Couples need to BOTH agree on 4 big topics, and have 4 important traits BETWEEN THEM.
AGREEMENT TOPICS

1. Sexuality - style, frequency, etc. It may be hard to plan for the future but you at least want several good years during which you really learn to satisfy each other.
2. Children - not just how many (the answer is usually "one at a time") but also parenting style, division of labor, family involvement etc.

3. Lifestyle - rootless cosmopolitan or buy a house in a small town? Frugal or extravagant? Host parties or Netflix and chill?
Read 10 tweets
Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
12 Oct
I think that my real objection to this is that I actually believe:

1) People don't spend enough time dating
AND
2) People don't spend enough time thinking
AND
1+2 are complementary, not competing, activities.
Almost all single people I know who say that finding a partner is as important as their career spend 10x hours of effort on the latter. And of course, if all you can come with for dating is regurgitating the same takes in the same bars to the same people you won't enjoy it much.
But every date can be an opportunity to meet a new person with their own ideas and culture and background and reactions. And every date you can be someone slightly different, with different obsessions and ideas. A date is an intellectual open mic.
Read 4 tweets
Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
15 Sep
Let's talk about some Bayes you can apply for fun and profit this very evening!

The Denver Nuggets are playing the LA Clippers for the seventh time in two weeks. They split the previous 6 games. The betting line is Denver +275, implying a 26.5% chance to win. Which way to bet? Image
During the regular season, LA won 68% of their games and Denver 63%, a pretty small gap. LA looked slightly better in Round 1. Yet the line for Game 1 was Denver +365, for a 21.5% win probability.
But we've had six games since then to update on. For each possible underlying win prob (WP) for Denver, we can calculate the chance of a series going 3-3 conditional on that WP. So it's 1.5 times more likely to go 3-3 if WP=26.5% over 21.5%, twice as likely still if WP was 45%. Image
Read 6 tweets
Putanumonit Jacob Profile picture
28 Jul
Hypothesis: late-modernist progressivish neoliberalism a la Obama is actually the best philosophy of governance possible today. Anything better for the population will be rejected, anything more popular will be worse.

This thought is mostly inspired by @mgurri's must-read book.
Gurri notes the failures of high modernist projects throughout the 20th C. (c.f. Seeing Like a State). At the dawn of the 21st, these failures aren't only obvious but impossible by governments and authorities to suppress in the decentralized information landscape of the internet.
These visible failures don't engender humility and lower expectations, they mostly engender nihilist antagonism as can be seen in every popular protest movement from 2011 till today. People simultaneously chant "The authorities are evil!" and "Please save us, o authorities!".
Read 9 tweets

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