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Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
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4 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
NASDAQ 100 futures absolutely soaring. bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…
Now up 2.2%!
Now 2.5%!
2.7%!

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More from @TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
4 Nov
The prediction markets are great, they're just misunderstood. People get hung up on the "prediction" part. But that's not really what they're for. What they do is put a number on the current state of the conventional wisdom, which can be very useful.
If a prediction market gets it "wrong" it's just that people got it wrong. Which happens all the time. But to be able to go from something fuzzy (eg: "experts think Biden will win") to (eg "The market puts a 70% chance of Biden winning") is useful.
Then if you disagree, you have something substantive to benchmark your views against.
Read 5 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
3 Nov
Ant financial IPO suspended! bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Good news is now people have more time to listen to our latest Odd Lots on Chinese internet stocks, and the difficulty valuing them
*ANT GROUP SAYS HONG KONG IPO ALSO SUSPENDED

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
8 Sep
STILL THE JOBS CHART THAT WORRIES ME MOST

I wrote about permanent layoffs for the @markets newsletter today, and how even with an overall recovery that's clearly faster than expected, they're still getting worse at a quicker pace than the Great recession bloomberg.com/news/newslette… ImageImage
@markets BTW, I think when thinking about the election, it's going to be extra-difficult to plug in some "economic fundamentals" into a model. Top-line GDP growth may be surging, and unemployment is coming down. But beneath the surface, deeper labor market pain is continues to grow.
A middle class, professional thinking about the state of the economy may have been extremely worried about their job in March/April. Then relatively sanguine in June/July, and then increasingly anxious August - October.
Read 5 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
2 Sep
I'M MORE WORRIED ABOUT SUPERSTAR COMPANIES THAN I AM ABOUT "ZOMBIES"

In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about why the huge, booming tech companies could be holding back GDP growth more than the so-called "zombie" firms everyone likes to fret about bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets This is something I've been thinking about since this piece from @SarahPonczek bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Basically, the economy would be better with less Facebooks, and more Post Offices
Read 9 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
29 Jul
Under Biden, the GOP will make lots of noise on the deficit. Ironically, the answer for Democrats is to go hard on spending.

Voters don't actually care about the deficit. They just care about the economy. So to pre-empt deficit concerns, gotta go pedal-to-medal on GDP growth.
If the Democrats take power. And if they go small on spending out of fears of being attacked on the deficit, they're going to get crushed in 2022.
Bill Clinton understood this. When a voter in a 1992 debate asked a question about the deficit, he recognized that that was just a proxy for broader economic anxiety.
Read 4 tweets
Joe Weisenthal Profile picture
15 Jul
IN NOW JUST 10 DAYS, MILLIONS OF PEOPLE'S LIVES ARE SCHEDULED TO BE THROWN INTO DISARRAY

In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the very straightforward stakes of what's about to happen to the US economy bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets The key thing I want to emphasize is that people keep talking about how things are "unprecedented" in the economy. And that's true so as far as it goes. But what's always true is that all spending is someone else's income. And the government is set to slash spending dramatically.
The scheduled GDP hit is going to be massive, without an adequate replacement. Simple math here from Charlie.
Read 9 tweets

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