The prediction markets are great, they're just misunderstood. People get hung up on the "prediction" part. But that's not really what they're for. What they do is put a number on the current state of the conventional wisdom, which can be very useful.
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1323851765452742656
If a prediction market gets it "wrong" it's just that people got it wrong. Which happens all the time. But to be able to go from something fuzzy (eg: "experts think Biden will win") to (eg "The market puts a 70% chance of Biden winning") is useful.
Then if you disagree, you have something substantive to benchmark your views against.
FWIW, this is all markets basically. A trade is an implicit prediction. The price is the current collective view.
Certain markets, like the market for short-term Treasuries or Eurodollar futures are explicitly prediction markets on Fed rate policy. That's literally all they are. And they work extremely well!
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