We've long said Latinos aren't a monolith. Tonight proves just that: the promise and the peril of the Latino vote.
Miami + FL are just a small share of Latino electorate that will shape the outcome of this election.
There is a lot of the Latino story that is yet to be written
Florida goes first and always grabs our attention but there is a lot more to be written tonight and the rest of the week.
As I’m in the middle of writing this, Arizona was already called for Biden on the strength of Latino voters in Maricopa County and Tucson.
Remember when we Colorado was a battleground state? Remember when we still needed to keep an eye on New Mexico? Years of organizing and the strength of the Latino vote in those states has taken them out of the spotlight but they are still an important part of the story.
Now turning to the “blue wall” where everyone started this election talking about and here we are. Much talk abt the blue collar white voters + suburbs. And tho they don’t get as much attn there are critical numbers of Latino voters in these states -- esp in a close race:
In Wisconsin, we expect over 150k Latinos to vote and ballots won’t be counted until at least 5am Wednesday.
In Michigan, we expect another 120k. When you look at the margins of 2016, Latinos can easily be critical to the margin of victory to put Biden over the top.
In Pennsylvania, we expect up to 300k Latino voters when all is said and done. And many of those ballots will likely not be counted until Friday.
In all: the Latino story of 2020 is still very much unwritten.
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What last night's RNC convention made clear: The GOP is making an effort to go after voters of color. We've been saying for ages that this election will be won and lost on the margins.
Their strategy is not to actually win the majority of these voters, but rather to shave enough off the margins or get enough of us to stay home. We've seen this plain + simple in how they've tried to discredit Biden with voters of color - seeding doubt and "both sidesism"
They are using race and nativism as a cudgel to divide black and brown voters. These small margins can add up to to a path to victory in critical states like NV, AZ, FL, NC.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are felt globally and by all kinds of people. But they aren’t landing equally across the population here in the US.
@EquisResearch reviewed recent public polling to see how Latinos are faring. THREAD (1/)
1. On key economic questions Latinos report higher levels of concern and hardship at this early stage. 2/
2. Latinos also appear to be taking public health warnings to heart, expressing less comfort being in public places.
Notice Latino discomfort with public venues extends to the thought of polling places. Which is why so many are talking about alternatives to in-person voting 3/
Read my new @Medium piece
Solving for X: Here’s How the LatinX Electorate Will Define the Next Election link.medium.com/zX1rAnOSwZ
Some hot takes here
[THREAD] 1/
The largest + fastest growing group in the US today is the LatinX voter: the median age of the community is 28 yrs old, with the fastest growing part of the pop under 5. There are 32 million eligible Latinx voters in 2020, making us the lgst minority group in this election 2/
Outdated tactics used to mobilize their parents won’t cut it. Yet, outdated thinking and inadequate infrastructure leaves too many potential voters disconnected from the political process — leading to lower rates of participation and less power. 3/