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David Rothschild Profile picture
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4 Nov, 2 tweets, 1 min read
@realDonaldTrump Mail-in ballots heavily favor Biden because you told your supporters to *not* mail-in ballots, while Biden told his supporters to mail-in ballots.
Biden is leading in 270 Electoral Votes, I want Biden to win, if we stopped counting right now he would win, but I favor counting every last legal vote cast because I am a democrat, more than I am a Democrat.

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More from @DavMicRot

David Rothschild Profile picture
3 Nov
Here is what I will be looking for as the data comes into tonight (1) Has Biden clearly won "swing" states he is up by a lot: MN, WI, MI, NE-2 are key (2) Has Biden won NV (tighter polls, but DEM regularly overperforms): if he wins these states, he has 260 electoral votes.
(3) If that goes Biden's way he just needs one of 7 states: PA, AZ, NC, FL, GA, OH, TX. Every state I did not name is either gravy for Biden or he is fucked if it is in play. Here is the little spreadsheet I made to keep track of EV if/when I get flustered. Probability is crude.
For senate there are 3 seats in play that I will be watching closely to make sure Democrats get to 50: ME, MI, NC. That is assuming Democrats will also take AZ, CO. After that it is a race to get 51 or 52 seats: they really need 52 seats to make sure to pass key legislation.
Read 55 tweets
David Rothschild Profile picture
3 Nov
I largely refrained from predictions in 2020 for numerous reasons. Horse-race coverage (1) gamifies & diminishes importance of this election (2) may displace coverage of more import (3) may discourage participation. I did jump into disagree w/ everyone on trajectory of election:
I was convinced by my polling, fundamentals of economy & COVID-19, relative strengths of the candidates that Biden would enlarge the map and maintain his polling lead up to Election Day: it is pretty clear at this point that my position was valid ...
Now the question is what will the polling error be (i.e., will Biden or Trump do better than the final polling averages), while almost everyone is fretting over how much Trump beats the average, I believe that Biden is actually more likely to beat the averages.
Read 6 tweets
David Rothschild Profile picture
14 Oct
In 2016 @nytimes published 10 front-page articles on Secretary Clinton’s IT Security in a 6 day period from 10/29-11/3/16. NYT was signaling this is an important story, that people should pay attention to this story above and beyond other possible topics about the 2016 election.
Consequently other publications also wrote up this story and Clinton's IT Security became the most consumed & remembered issue of the election.
In 2017 @USATODAY reported that Jared Kushner & Ivanka Trump were routing personal and government emails through a private server hosted by the Trump Organization. @nytimes did run one front-page article on this, before the story was eclipsed by other news usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
Read 20 tweets
David Rothschild Profile picture
11 Oct
Republicans Packed the Courts.
Republicans make it super clear: they believe that nominees to the Courts should only be approved when the president & senate are the same party. They emptied out judicatory over President Obama’s last 6 years, and promised to continue to do so for 4 more years if Clinton won.
Republicans then jammed unqualified, young extremists into the Courts for their 4 years of President Trump & Republican senate. This destroys the legitimacy of the Courts, and is against spirit of Constitution, but legal.
Read 4 tweets
David Rothschild Profile picture
19 Aug
@FBIRecordsVault Did Q hack the @FBI Twitter account?
Republicans/Q super excited by this reply 🤪
If not for fact that they are hateful antisemites I would almost feel bad for the army of trolls that follow/attack me just because my last name (no relation, at all) happens to match name of a banking family in their centuries outdated deranged antisemitic conspiracy theories 😎
Read 4 tweets
David Rothschild Profile picture
16 Aug
Media reporting President Trump/Republican Leadership undermining US Postal Service to win the election. Reality is much worse...

President Trump/Republican Leadership undermining US Postal Service to maybe help win the election, but definitely kill seniors/veterans/rural folks.
Crushing US Postal Service will not just make prescriptions late for seniors/veterans/rural folks, but other necessary supplies in pandemic where we don't want people at risk making unnecessary trips to stores. Also, it fucks with small business who use USPS to ship their goods.
Further: assume Republicans actually kill US Postal Service, private companies (for a hefty surcharge) will make the urban & suburban stops, but no private company is going to cover rural stops. They will simply have no way to get anything, even for a cost, delivered to them.
Read 4 tweets

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