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4 Nov, 12 tweets, 2 min read
Thoughts on the American election:

- it is a shame the meteor didn't run again
- too many states start with M, not enough with E or Y, this strikes me as unfair
- red and blue remain boring colours, why not try a nice fuschia?
- if you were to combine the Midwest into one state you could call it Megahio. This is very ridiculous, but quite a good name
- New York is similarly a silly name. Presumably it came into being at roughly the same time as Old York when the Earth's crust was formed, and so it should be renamed Also York

- counting votes is meant to take time, unless we reimagine time as non-linear
- if we imagine time as non-linear, then Biden and Trump have both won and lost and should accept their defeat/victory with magnanimity/anger

- Massachusetts is a challenging word to spell correctly
- if the American election was held in Australia, a huge number of people would simply be arrested for trying to unfairly influence the result

- this is a strong reason to hold the US election in Sydney, which would be very democratic but challenging logistically
- I now know the names of more American states than Australian ones, which is somewhat disconcerting

- this is perhaps an unsurprising fact, given that there are only 6 Australian states, but I am nevertheless disappointed in myself somehow
- people keep complaining about the electoral college being confusing and antiquated, which is odd because that's true of the whole election really

- as one of the pivotal states still counting, it is annoying that Pennsylvania has so many syllables in its name
- American state lines are all drawn badly, except for Wyoming and Colorado, which are pleasingly regular and thus the Best States

- there are either too many or too few counties in Georgia, depending on how you feel about pointless redundancy
- people seem overly fond of chanting, given that votes are in fact on paper and thus cannot be changed by words alone

- unless the chanting is some kind of wizardy, in which case there are more wizards in Arizona/Pennsylvania than I was expecting
- too many people are saying the words "Joe Biden is on top" which raises disturbing imagery of a Trump/Biden embrace

- this is, thankfully, better than saying "Trump is on the bottom" which is far more evocative a phrase
- American accents elide the words "polls" and "Poles", giving the confusing impression that Polish people are pivotal to the election in some way

- clearly the solution to this is to hire more Australians to comment on the US election
- there is no particular magic in "calling" a vote, unless you are an electoral official

- thus, I would like to call the presidential election in my favour, despite not running, and being Australian, because the gig pays somewhat better than an epidemiologists salary

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More from @GidMK

3 Nov
There is, I think, an ongoing and pervasive misunderstanding about hospital 'capacity' during COVID-19

Capacity is NOT the TOTAL NUMBER of beds

It is the number of FREE beds

This is a very important point
So, for example, England had around 4,000 ICU beds at the start of the year

But they were operating at 85% capacity! So in fact they had more like 600 FREE ICU beds to treat COVID-19
What I mean by this is that, on any given day, 85% of the critical care beds were occupied by people - heart attacks, car crashes, urgent surgeries and the like
Read 8 tweets
3 Nov
At least once a month in 2020:

"CASES ARE RISING BUT DEATHS AREN'T. PANDEMIC OVER"

"But there's a death lag - often of 6-8 weeks! It'll happen soon"

"NAH BUDDY PANDEMIC OVER"

*6-8 weeks later*

"FUCK"
Partly, this is because cases don't have a big reporting lag but deaths do - because certifying an infection takes very little effort but certifying a death takes quite a lot more
Add to this the fact that the MEDIAN time from infection to death for COVID-19 is 3 weeks, and you get a 5+ week lag from when cases first start to rise to when deaths do (in many cases, not all)
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
Ugh this is an irresponsible headline and a pretty dubious study. Compared NHANES to an internet survey conducted in April that used a 13-point rating of depression *symptoms*, not depression diagnoses 🙄
One big issue with this is that transient depression symptoms do not meet the criteria for a diagnosis of depression in most cases, and a single survey done at the start of the pandemic may not be sufficient to describe the true situation
I think all you could reasonably say from this is that people in this particular survey were experiencing a high burden of worry in April in the U.S., but what this means for mental health issues long term is quite hard to discern
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
One thing that I rarely see mentioned is the context for a "herd immunity" style strategy of doing nothing at all about the pandemic

In particular, how long will it take?
The REACT studies from the UK offer some information on this. Recently, they have estimated ~100,000 people being infected a day, with a robust estimate of 6% population prevalence prior to this outbreak
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Some simple calculus, then, gives us about 4 million infections prior to September, in a population of about 67 million

So how long to go at 100,000 infections a day?
Read 7 tweets
1 Nov
It is perfectly reasonable to describe negative consequences of govt action like lockdowns, however it is totally nonsensical to compare this to life as normal when in reality the alternative is an out of control epidemic
If you pretend, in the face of all evidence, that there are no negative economic and social outcomes that can be attributed to a massive rise in COVID-19 cases, then you are just being intellectually dishonest
Moreover, I think there's a matter of scale that people don't really understand - despite the enormous ongoing epidemic in the United States, it's unlikely that more than 20% of the country has been infected with COVID-19

The epidemic could still take months/years to resolve!
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
You have to wonder at what point all of the people proudly proclaiming over the last 4 months that Sweden is at herd immunity will admit that they were wrong
Should be noted for the people who misunderstand - herd immunity is about CASES. By definition, if you have a massive epidemic, the population is not at herd immunity
A simple way to explain this is the common cold. No one claims that we have "herd immunity" to the cold, despite it being relatively mild. It's just an endemic disease
Read 4 tweets

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