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29 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
You have to wonder at what point all of the people proudly proclaiming over the last 4 months that Sweden is at herd immunity will admit that they were wrong
Should be noted for the people who misunderstand - herd immunity is about CASES. By definition, if you have a massive epidemic, the population is not at herd immunity
A simple way to explain this is the common cold. No one claims that we have "herd immunity" to the cold, despite it being relatively mild. It's just an endemic disease
Ok I've been informed that the common cold is a ~terrible~ example. A better one might be measles or mumps pre vaccination

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More from @GidMK

Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
29 Oct
A thought I've been having a lot recently - everyone says that waves 2 & 3 of COVID-19 have been markedly different from the first

This is often used to support the idea that COVID-19 is getting less deadly

But is it true? 1/n
2/n If you look at the cases/deaths data from the US, it certainly seems true. Far MORE confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the second wave, but far FEWER deaths

At first glance, looks like COVID-19 is getting less lethal!
3/n Problem is, we know that testing has changed enormously over the year, especially in the US

WAY more people are being tested now than in the earlier months of the year, which makes the cases/deaths equation a bit useless
Read 16 tweets
Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
28 Oct
A lot of people seem to completely misunderstand herd immunity

Immunity is about CASES, not DEATHS or HOSPITALIZATIONS

Even if deaths were to decrease, if cases are rising it is not herd immunity BY DEFINITION
To a great extent, I think this is because people have consistently been sold herd immunity as an end to the pandemic, even if that doesn't really make sense
The point is, even if we were to decrease the fatality rate of COVID to the level of the common cold, if cases are still increasing it's not population/herd immunity
Read 4 tweets
Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
27 Oct
Monthly data from the Victorian Suicides Register shows that until the start of September 2020, there had been no increase in suicides in the state compared to previous years
coronerscourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
Of course, this does not preclude a large increase in September/October, but at least using the best current evidence there does not appear to be evidence to support the claim that policy has driven a direct increase in suicides
I have just found the more recent Coroners report showing that this trend persisted in September - again, it is possible that there was a large increase in Oct, but currently no evidence of an increase in suicide rates in Victoria in 2020 coronerscourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
Read 6 tweets
Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
27 Oct
I always think that abortion policy is the place where feelings trump facts most, because we know that

a) banning abortions DOESN'T reduce abortions
b) contraception DOES reduce abortions
c) abortion bans are very harmful

And yet people still advocate for bans
None of this is controversial in the slightest, and indeed is very well-demonstrated. The problem is that inducing an abortion isn't necessarily hard, it's inducing one SAFELY that is the problem
I always find this abbreviated list of abortion techniques from the WHO enlightening on the topic. These are things that women try in the absence of safe abortion provision

Examples include inserting knives into the uterus, drinking turpentine, and jumping off a roof
Read 6 tweets
Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
26 Oct
Worth noting the truly spectacular achievement of the Australian state of Victoria, which went from 500 daily COVID-19 cases in mid-July to NO cases and NO deaths today

In the same time period, France went from 500 daily cases to 50,000 cases and 100s of deaths today
Well done Victorians! 👏👏👏👏
And, uh, not so well done France 😕
Read 4 tweets
Spooky Health Nerd Profile picture
23 Oct
So, this is doing the rounds, and an 8.5-point drop in IQ does seem terrifying post-COVID, but I think there are a few things about the study that are worth pointing out
You can find the study here. It's a fairly simple examination of a very large database of people doing psychometric tests online in Britain

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The researchers recruited 84,000 people starting in December 2019, and mostly in the months of January and May 2020, to do a series of tests that measure cognitive ability (not IQ per se, but similar in nature)
Read 9 tweets

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