Thread by @tburages

As Trump & Co claim victory in PA, their lead keeps shrinking.

They lead by 379,692 votes.
There are 929,598 ballots left to count.

It all depends on what percentage of the absentee ballots are Biden's.

If Biden gets at least 71% of the absentee ballots, he wins.

Just updated my calculations based on new input from PA. If Biden gets 69% of the absentee vote, he wins.

But it's also in recount territory, I think (a win by less than half a percentage point).

Trump's lead is now only 326,723. It's dwindled 54,000 in the last half hour.

Lead is down to 320,400.

Lead is now down to 313,943.

As long as Biden keeps 69% of the remaining vote, he wins (but with a possible recount).

Biden just said he's been winning 78% of the absentee ballots in PA and that he feels "very good" about winning the state.

My calculations show that now Biden can win with 68% of the absentee ballots (by 475 votes).

Correction: small rounding error above. He needs like 68.4% of the absentees.

The PA count seems to have slowed a bit. Dinner break?

More of Trump's lead chipped away by Biden votes. He's below 300,000 ahead now.

69% of the remaining votes going for Biden would give him a win of about 14,798.

They must be off dinner break. Trump's lead is 292,272 now. If Biden gets 69% of the rest he will win by ~17,913.

Trump's lead is down to 272,236. Biden wins if he hangs onto 68% of the remaining absentees.

If he hangs onto 70% he beats Trump by 41,000 or so.

Trump's lead's down again to 266,690 votes. No wonder he's fighting so hard to stop the counting.

Biden can win if he keeps at least 67.5% of the remaining absentees. He says he's getting about 76%.

Trump's lead is now 259,048.

Biden will win if he retains *67%* of the remaining absentees.

Trump's lead just dropped by 10,000. It's 249,430 and Biden can win if he gets 66.8% of the remaining vote.

Down another 10,000: +239,521 Trump.

Biden wins if he retains 66.4% of the remaining.

Down under 9,000: +230,138 Trump

Biden needs 66.3% of the remaining votes.

Down another 17,965, Trump's lead has shrunk to 212,173 in PA.

Only needs 65.7% of the remaining votes!

Seven minutes later and Trump's down another 5000 votes.

Trump is down to 199,474 ahead in PA with 89.5% reporting.

Joe can win if he earns 65.20% of the remaining vote.

Trump's only 195,901 ahead now.

When I started this thread 5 hours ago, Trump was ahead in PA by 379,692.

That lead has shrunk to 190,921 with almost 90% of the state reporting.

There are about 634,154 more ballots to count.

Trump's lead has been cut to 188,563 with 634,611 more votes remaining.

If Biden can win just 64.9% of these, he wins.

Lead's been cut 7,000 in the last 4 minutes.

90% of the vote is in.

Joe needs 64.6% of the rest.

Trump's up by only 167,800 now.

Biden can win if he holds on to 64% of the remaining ballots. He says he's been winning about 78% of those mail-in votes.

Looks like PA has resumed their counting and is 91% complete, and Trump's lead is down another 15,000 or so to 153,817.

Biden can win with 63.4% of the remaining ballots.

91.4% in:

3,222,947 Trump
- 3,097,296 Biden
===========
135,651 lead for Trump

Biden wins with 62.4% of remaining ballots

There are just over half a million ballots left to count in PA and Joe is catching up quickly.

Once PA is called for Joe, that's ALL he needs to win, which is why Trump tweeted out his ridiculous "STOP THE VOTE" demand.

I deleted the bad math tweet.

This one should be correct.

Estimated totals if Biden gets 78% of the remaining vote:

Biden: 3,516,789
Trump: 3,344,941
--------------------------
Biden wins by 171,847.

Ballots remaining: 549,199
Current:
Biden: 3,088,414
Trump: 3,224,188

Biden: 3,088,414 + (549,199 * .78) = 3,516,789.03

Trump: 3,224,118 + (549,199*.22) = 3,344,941.73

Biden wins by 171,847

We were warned weeks ago that the blue wall would start out on election day as a red mirage, and that Trump would try using that to his advantage.

New York Times says Biden has been receiving 79.8% of the absentee vote in Pennsylvania.

If that holds, Biden could win by about 192,000.

Another batch just came in for PA. They're ~91.6% in.

Trump's lead is about 124,870.

Biden can win if he gets at least 61.62% of the remaining vote - and @nytimes says he's getting about 79.8% of the absentees.

Trump's lead just shrunk by another 3,000. #SAD!

3,226,699 Trump
3,104,840 Biden
73,670 Jorgensen
-----------------------
6,405,209total

Trump ahead by about 121,859 with 91.7% of ballots counted.

Last 2 tweets for the next hour or so (results are coming in slowly).

If Biden only wins 65% of the remaining PA vote, he still wins by 41,547.

Biden: 3,111,776 + (525,909 * 0.65) =3,453,617
Trump: 3,228,002 + (525,909 * 0.35) =3,412,070
---------------
Biden wins by 41,547

NY Times says Biden is getting 79.8% of absentees.

If Biden got 79% of the remainder of the PA vote, here's the math for his win:

Biden: 3,111,776 + (525,909 * 0.79) =3,527,244
Trump: 3,228,002 + (525,909 * 0.21) =3,338,443
-------------------
Biden wins by 188,801

For reference, this is much bigger than Trump's win against Clinton in 2016. He beat her by only 44,292 in PA.

Should note that my math is skewed by ~1% since I'm not calculating in 3rd party, which is getting about 1.15% of the vote.

More results trickling in from PA.

Word is that Biden's taking absentees by 79.8% but even if it's only 70%, here's the math for his win.

Biden: 3,117,148 + (520,195 * 0.7) =3,481,284
Trump: 3,231,161 + (520,195 * 0.3) =3,387,219
--------------------
Biden wins by 94,065

The 520,195 number is an estimated number of remaining ballots, given that about 91.9% have been counted.

Also, my math shows that Biden could win if he only took 61% of the remaining votes.

Trump's lead in PA is now just 101,000 and Biden can win by getting 60.2% of the remainder.

If Biden gets 70% of the rest:

Biden: 3,137,621 + (496,680 * 0.7) =3,485,297
Trump: 3,238,623 + (496,680 * 0.3) =3,387,627
--------------------------
Biden wins by 97,670

If Biden gets 78% of the rest of PA, then:

Biden: 3,137,621 + (496,680 * 0.78) =3,525,031
Trump: 3,238,623 + (496,680 * 0.22) =3,347,893
---------------------------
Biden wins by 177,139

Trump now under 100,000 lead in PA with 92.4% reporting: about 97,900.

Biden's catching up and only needs about 62% of remaining vote.

Trump's lead down to 95,662 in PA with about 484,910 ballots remaining.

With a 78% Biden return rate:

Biden: 3,147,762 + (484,910 * 0.78) =3,525,992
Trump: 3,243,424 + (484,910 * 0.22) =3,350,104
-------------------------
Biden wins by 175,888

Trump's lead is 🔽 to 90,544.

If Biden takes 59.6% of the rest, he wins.

@nytimes says he's taking 79.8% of these.

If that's true, then:

Biden: 3,157,272 + (473,006 * 0.798) =3,534,730
Trump: 3,247,816 + (473,006 * 0.202) =3,343,363
--------------
Biden wins by 191,367

I was hoping this would be done today, but it's taken 10 hours today for PA to go from 91% to 92.7% complete.

During that stretch Trump's lead dropped 63,273 - from 153,817 to 90,544.

It really will be tomorrow before this is done.

New tranche of votes puts Trump's lead at only 78,314.

Biden can now win with 58.6% of the remaining vote (about 456,000 left to count).

If, however, Biden gets that 79.8% of remaining vote, here's his win:

Biden: 3,181,740 + (456,169 * 0.798) =3,545,763
Trump: 3,260,054 + (456,169 * 0.202) =3,352,200
--------------------------
Biden wins by 193,563

OK. People are telling me there are only 300,000 left to count.

If that's the case and Biden gets 75% then:

Biden: 3,181,752 + (300,000 * 0.75) =3,406,752
Trump: 3,260,068 + (300,000 * 0.25) =3,335,068
------------------------
Biden wins by 71,684

BUT - that means the Times is wrong in saying only 93% is in so far.

Does anyone know how many total votes they're expecting?

Trump is only ahead now by 64,239, which is why he's in a complete state of panic and why he's ready to take the country down with him.

Biden is only a point behind Trump in PA now ...

Trump is only up 58,288 votes in PA right now with 93.8% of the vote in.

Make that 50,673.

Once Trump's lead is gone, it's pretty much official: Joe Biden won.

Trump's lead is down to 48,856.

My math shows that the total number of counted votes is 6,574,282, and if 94.10% is counted, that means there will be a total of about 7 million.

That means there is about ~412,000 to be counted.

If Biden can hold onto 56% of them, he wins.

My "bare-minimum-to-win" math:

Biden: 3,224,947 + (412,203 * 0.56) =3,455,780
Trump: 3,273,803 + (412,203 * 0.44) =3,455,172
---------------------------
Biden wins by 608

If Joe gets 70%:

Biden: 3,224,947 + (412,203 * 0.7) =3,513,489
Trump: 3,273,803 + (412,203 * 0.3) =3,397,464
-----------------------------
Biden wins by 116,025

Trump's lead in PA is thinning faster than his hair did in his 40s. He's down to a 42,144 lead.

My math shows 398,301 more votes to count (based on 94.3% in).

If Joe gets 70% of those, he wins by 117,176.

Biden: 3,235,788 + (398,301 * 0.7) =3,514,599
Trump: 3,277,932 + (398,301 * 0.3) =3,397,422
------------------------------
Biden wins by 117,176

Judging by the rate these are coming in, it will take 5 more working hours for Biden to overtake Trump.

Last night they stopped the count, so guessing we won't see Biden in the black until tomorrow.

Trump's ahead in PA by 26,314 votes.

My bare-min-to-win math says Joe can win this with 53% of the rest.

Trump's ahead by 24,479 now.

Biden will win this, but it's safe to go to bed, I think. He'll make it over the finish line tomorrow morning.

One more update:

Trump's lead has slipped to a paper-thin 22,571 in PA.

If PA keeps going, this really could end tonight. Very, very late.

More likely, very very early on Friday.

Trump's lead in PA now is 18,224 as votes keep coming in at 1:30am EST

❗️BIDEN TOOK THE LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA!

He leads by 5412!

The networks haven't yet called PA for Biden, but "270 to Win" HAS

And here you go.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324710866516905984?s=20