Thread by @McAdooGordon

So I’ve looked at everything I can find, taking into account what counties haven’t reported & how things were trending, etc., & as of 4pm today I think where we actually stand is here 👇🏻. I’ll give you the scenarios, but overall, either man could still win at this point./1

AZ looks to be very close. We should get their final before PA. To my eye, the counties & trend favor DJT, but most of the outstanding vote is early/provisional so the percentages could be different from my view. If DJT wins AZ, this is where we stand. /2

If Biden wins AZ, this is where we stand. /3

If DJT wins AZ, (which I think we’ll find out tonight or early tomorrow) all eyes will turn to the Keystone State. I think it’s more likely DJT wins PA than Biden, but here are both scenarios. /4

PA we will probably not know for sure until Friday, Saturday at the latest, barring any legal maneuvers that cause further delay.

My own view is that DJT probably wins, but it is very close. /5

Two areas of possible, but I think unlikely, change.

NV & MI.

Both right now favor Biden, but could favor DJT if they were to change in a major way. /6

First: NV. DJT was behind there when they stopped counting by approx 7600 votes. Some of the outstanding counties are rural, but the splits were still favoring Biden & the votes outstanding were early ones where that was definitely true. Could it flip? Sure, but unlikely. /7

MI. I’d thought DJT would likely win MI & am surprised by the small Biden lead. The issue here is that the state Secretary’s reporting is not matching up well w/the media reporting. I think it’s a data lag but it’s so close in MI that it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on it./8

Basically the way it shakes out for both men is that in a race where AZ, MI & PA are all 3 in play, whoever wins AZ only needs to win one of those 2 rust belt states, whereas whoever loses AZ must win them both. And right now, DJT leads in PA & Biden leads in MI. /9