I will say it: I’ve always been addicted to polls. Long before rcp and nate and all the rest of them I was a polling addict. But I keep seeing people saying how there’s going to be a “reckoning” because pollsters and models were at least off to an extent in 2020.
2/ It’s not clear they’re actually wildly off. But who cares really? Obviously professional pollsters care. And if internal campaign polls are making big errors that’s a problem for campaigns. But I’m seeing it discussed as though it’s some big **political** problem.
3/ Or it’s even a problem with Democrats ability to appeal to rural America. But what does it really have to do with anything. I certainly like feeling like I have some sense of what’s going to happen on election night. But why does it matter? Why does it matter for winning ...
4/ elections or being involved in politics? Why do we as civic minded people or political junkies need to worry about “fixing” political polling? Is it our problem? Do we need it to be fixed?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Josh Marshall

Josh Marshall Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @joshtpm

6 Nov
Here's the best way to understand what's happening with the network calls. Calls don't end elections. They help the public understand what happened. The usual standard is something roughly comparable to the "reasonable doubt" standard. Because they're scared of Trump ...
2/ they appear to have shifted to a "theoretical doubt" standard. Is it theoretically possible something could change. That's a high standard. And it is important to note that calls don't end the counting and obviously they shouldn't. They never do. But there is absolutely ...
3/ no doubt that the networks and the Associated Press are applying a different standard than has ever been applied to a presidential or any other election in the United States. He's won in multiple states that could individually secure his electoral college victory. It's over.
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
What is worth noting is that President Trump doesn’t even have a legal claim, let alone a legitimate one. Their plan was to go to the Supreme Court to throw out mail in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterwards. That in itself was an egregious assault on ...
2/ the electoral process and one the corrupt SCOTUS majority was probably ready to go along with. But those haven’t even come into play. He’s lost without those even getting counted. His only argument seems to be a brief dispute over the number of feet election observers ...
3/ could get to the counting in PA. And that was already settled. There’s no single issue TPM has devoted more time to over twenty years than voting rights, phony “voter fraud” hysteria and voter suppression. Usually there’s at least a bogus angle to try to get into court.
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
Here's the curated list of election hands, data experts and numbers people I follow on election nights to help me understand what's happening. No commentary or spin, just what do the numbers mean? twitter.com/i/lists/706696…
2/ A few points. This is not meant to be a definitive list but a useful and reliable one. Because someone isn't on there cld just mean I'm not familiar with them. Some people whose opinions I follow closely aren't on because they don't tweet actively. Others I don't ...
3/ have on because their feeds are mostly commentary or opinion or analysis, rather than the focus of the list. Obviously there's nothing wrong with those things. I'd be out of a job. It's just not what this list is for. It's basically just what I've cobbled together ...
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
It’s remarkable when you see these numbers in retrospect that people were so confident
Many psychological factors played into it. Denial. Sanity, etc. but Nate Silvers prediction in 2012 I think played a big role. The national horserace numbers were quite close. But Nate said Obama was a strong favorite. And he won. I think many took from that ...
2/ that models could determine a winner by computational firepower even if the horse race polls were pretty tight. And of course lots of models were saying a Clinton victory was essentially a mathematical certainty. Of course 538’s was different, only about 2:1 odds for Clinton.
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
You wouldn’t know it but this “DEA raid” was on the office of a former high profile Fox News commentator who later got busted for sexual misconduct in his psychiatric practice. How you figure he ends up with a Hunter hard drive? washex.am/320ySb7
2/ So it seems that Hunter was so strung out on coke that he crisscrossed the country giving spare laptops and hard drive images to numerous Fox News stars and friends of President Trump. They say addicts indulge in risky behaviors but his certainly takes the cake.
3/ meet Keith ablow, Fox News psychiatrist talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/keith…
Read 11 tweets
31 Oct
Comical goofball stuff. HHS was planning a covid psa campaign with a ton of taxpayer money that was basically going to be campaign propaganda. It was supposed to land right before the election. As you can see here the theme was the best way to help America is to support Trump.
2/ there’s also this spreadsheet of possible celebs to be part of the campaign. The writer appears to be gop/incel adjacent. The whole is sneering but also kind of sad because the description of basically everyone they want is basically “hates Trump”
3/ there’s also this weird thing of saying what community they’re from, Hispanic, lbgt etc. and one of the categories is “super spreader” ... like maybe this was a way to make them more appealing to Trump?
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!