Here's the best way to understand what's happening with the network calls. Calls don't end elections. They help the public understand what happened. The usual standard is something roughly comparable to the "reasonable doubt" standard. Because they're scared of Trump ...
2/ they appear to have shifted to a "theoretical doubt" standard. Is it theoretically possible something could change. That's a high standard. And it is important to note that calls don't end the counting and obviously they shouldn't. They never do. But there is absolutely ...
3/ no doubt that the networks and the Associated Press are applying a different standard than has ever been applied to a presidential or any other election in the United States. He's won in multiple states that could individually secure his electoral college victory. It's over.
4/ But the President has managed to scare them out of making the call. I mean, who wants to tell Dad he can't hit mommy anymore. It's scary. They're scared.

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More from @joshtpm

8 Nov
Oh dear. I was just checking out this new fusillade from Glenn Greenwald which I had heard announces that Donald Trump's presidency was far more lawful and benign than President Obama's. This seems entirely in character and provides some helpful context to his generally ...
2/ loyal defenses of Donald Trump. I will say this. Given the particulars of the blow up last month, someone really does need an editor pretty badly. But then I noticed there's actually a dig at me! I may have gotten under Glenn's skin.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
Let me explain something about this "faithless electors" issue because I keep getting asked about it. This is the idea that the election could be overturned by Trump convincing electors in the electoral college to switch their votes. This will absolutely not happen. Here's why.
2/ The electors aren't random people or government bureaucrats. Each candidate has a slate of electors in each state chosen by the candidate, by the campaign. These are hardcore party loyalists and hardcore supporters of the candidate. They're going to think it over again ...
3/ and cast their vote for Trump? I don't think so. One might as well imagine that members of Biden's own campaign leadership are going to vote for Trump. The whole idea is absurd. The only case where the 'faithless elector' issue can come up is if there's some staggering ...
Read 5 tweets
7 Nov
A bit on people talking about the destruction of records and whether President Trump or his associates will do so over the next two months.
2/ The first thing to remember is that the federal government is very large and is essentially a document production machine. It’s simply not that easy to do, not and get everything. It’s also hard to do thoroughly without the assistance of career civil servants who are ...
3/ trained not to break the law and in this case have little incentive to do so. The second thing and perhaps even more important thing is this: most forms of executive branch wrongdoing either do not fit into or do not fit neatly into the four walls of federal criminal ...
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
What is worth noting is that President Trump doesn’t even have a legal claim, let alone a legitimate one. Their plan was to go to the Supreme Court to throw out mail in ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterwards. That in itself was an egregious assault on ...
2/ the electoral process and one the corrupt SCOTUS majority was probably ready to go along with. But those haven’t even come into play. He’s lost without those even getting counted. His only argument seems to be a brief dispute over the number of feet election observers ...
3/ could get to the counting in PA. And that was already settled. There’s no single issue TPM has devoted more time to over twenty years than voting rights, phony “voter fraud” hysteria and voter suppression. Usually there’s at least a bogus angle to try to get into court.
Read 6 tweets
4 Nov
I will say it: I’ve always been addicted to polls. Long before rcp and nate and all the rest of them I was a polling addict. But I keep seeing people saying how there’s going to be a “reckoning” because pollsters and models were at least off to an extent in 2020.
2/ It’s not clear they’re actually wildly off. But who cares really? Obviously professional pollsters care. And if internal campaign polls are making big errors that’s a problem for campaigns. But I’m seeing it discussed as though it’s some big **political** problem.
3/ Or it’s even a problem with Democrats ability to appeal to rural America. But what does it really have to do with anything. I certainly like feeling like I have some sense of what’s going to happen on election night. But why does it matter? Why does it matter for winning ...
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Here's the curated list of election hands, data experts and numbers people I follow on election nights to help me understand what's happening. No commentary or spin, just what do the numbers mean? twitter.com/i/lists/706696…
2/ A few points. This is not meant to be a definitive list but a useful and reliable one. Because someone isn't on there cld just mean I'm not familiar with them. Some people whose opinions I follow closely aren't on because they don't tweet actively. Others I don't ...
3/ have on because their feeds are mostly commentary or opinion or analysis, rather than the focus of the list. Obviously there's nothing wrong with those things. I'd be out of a job. It's just not what this list is for. It's basically just what I've cobbled together ...
Read 4 tweets

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