Share this page!

Tom Bonier Profile picture
Twitter logo
5 Nov, 7 tweets, 1 min read
Another 1,800 or so votes counted in GA, of which Biden wins 71%. He's tracking just above where needs to be in the remaining votes to win narrowly.
Now another 6,680 votes counted, Biden wins 79.4% of them. Biden trails by 33k. Needs to win about 67% of remaining votes to pass Trump, depending on the exact number of outstanding ballots. Still trending positive for Biden.
State officials say 24k outstanding ballots remain in Fulton. Those will be very heavily Dem, and likely put the Biden deficit below 15k. They say they should be through counting by... 3 AM (I really have to sleep at some point).
Another drop in GA - 3,128 votes. Biden wins 74.3% and continues to trend a bit ahead of where he would need to be in the remaining mail ballots to narrowly pass Trump. Statewide gap is 31,748.
Okay, SoS says there are 90,735 votes remaining in GA. Gap is Trump +31,748. Biden needs to win those remaining votes by 35% to barely close the gap. County breakdown:

Fulton: 30,862
DeKalb: 6,606
Chatham: 17,157

This is close, slightly favoring Biden still.
GA has been updating the counts every 30 mins or so, but this last update had no votes in it. Based on what I'm seeing at this point it looks like Biden should end up with a lead of about 5k votes. That's assuming the data provided by the state on outstanding ballots is correct.
I should add, it would seem we will have two runoffs in GA to decide Senate control.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Tom Bonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
6 Nov
Good morning! While you were (hopefully) sleeping, Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia, and now has a margin of 1,096 votes over Donald Trump.

There should be a bit under 10k votes remaining to be reported.

Any military ballots received by 5PM today will also be counted.
A follow up note - from what GA has reported, both military and overseas ballots can be received until 5PM today, but it is not the case that those received already have not been counted, for the most part. So the expectation is this does not represent a large number of votes.
We'll see where this ends up, on Wednesday I predicted Biden would end up with a lead of about 5k votes, that seems in play but may be closer to the 3,500-4,000 range. Image
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
5 Nov
Since I gave up waiting for results in Georgia about 7 hours ago, they have reported 23,273 additional votes. Biden won 78% of those votes, and now trails by 18,450 votes. In every batch of votes Biden has run slightly ahead of where he needs to be to close the gap.
I don't have a count from the Secretary of State as far as outstanding ballots, but if the count they provided at 1030 PM was correct, there should be about 67k more votes left to count. Biden would need to carry those with at least 64%.
This report says there are only 25k ballots remaining, which would be 42k lower than what the SoS reported last night. Not sure why the discrepancy. If there truly are only 25k left that won't be enough for Biden to pull ahead.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
3 Nov
For those of you interested in wildly overreacting to a very narrow dataset on this Election Day, might I recommend Duval County, Florida?

duvalelections.com/Election-Infor…
Duval County has been won by the Republican candidate in each of the past 3 presidential elections, but each time by very narrow margins. In 2016, Republican and Democratic turnout was almost exactly even.
Dems entered Election Day in Duval County with a turnout lead of about 24,000 voters, built largely on their advantage among mail ballots. As of the last update (linked in the first tweet in this thread) that advantage has been cut to about 14,000 votes.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
3 Nov
How did more people vote early in Texas than voted in total in any other election in the state's history? Huge surges in turnout from every race/ethnic group except white, non-college voters, whose turnout is still 282,446 votes behind 2016 levels.
Here's the thing - given the fact that every other group has surpassed 2016 turnout, 471,747 more white non-college voters would have to vote in Texas tomorrow just for that group to match their 2016 electorate share... if literally no one but white non-college voters turned out.
To state the obvious, that won't happen. Large numbers of Black, Latino, Asian, and other voters of color, as well as white college educated voters will cast a ballot on Election Day. What's more, simply matching 2016 vote shares is likely not enough for Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
2 Nov
Here are some of my topline thoughts on the historic early vote as we head into Election Day. I'll tweet out some more granular thoughts this evening and into tomorrow if I have a few minutes.
insights.targetsmart.com/early-vote-wra…
What stands out the most: the white non-college vote share underperforms their '16 share by 8.5 pts. That's 12.5M votes behind in the battlegrounds. And it's not because they stayed home, it's because voters of color and white college educated voters came out in massive numbers.
And here's the thing, it's not like just getting back to 2016 vote shares would be enough for Trump. We know he is underperforming '16 support levels with key groups, meaning his challenge is to actually surpass 2016 turnout shares.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
31 Oct
Can we talk about the Bloomberg "freakout article"?
First, I'll say that a little freaking out is good. This election is far from over. The winner will be decided based on the actions of tens of millions of voters across the country over the next 4 days. But we should also be clear-eyed about the landscape.
First, yes, the vote share of black and latino voters in battleground states is currently slightly behind where they were at this point in time in '16. 1.1 points among Black voters and 0.3 behind for Latino voters.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @tbonier