Thread by @tbonier

Good morning! While you were (hopefully) sleeping, Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia, and now has a margin of 1,096 votes over Donald Trump.

There should be a bit under 10k votes remaining to be reported.

Any military ballots received by 5PM today will also be counted.

A follow up note - from what GA has reported, both military and overseas ballots can be received until 5PM today, but it is not the case that those received already have not been counted, for the most part. So the expectation is this does not represent a large number of votes.

We'll see where this ends up, on Wednesday I predicted Biden would end up with a lead of about 5k votes, that seems in play but may be closer to the 3,500-4,000 range.

Democrats should ask @staceyabrams and @gwlauren how they turned Georgia blue in this race, and truly listen to the answer.

And yes, as they will tell you, this was the work of a lot of people, work that started years ago.

Later on I'll share more thoughts on what the data shows as to the flipping of Georgia, but I'll add one high level note now - for those suggesting BLM cost Democrats seats, the movement had 13 pt net favorability in Georgia, and Biden won among those voters by landslide margins.

And for those pointing out that Dems may have lost some House seats in conservative districts, at least in part due to BLM: If you define your party based on what you think might work in one district in Oklahoma, you're doing it wrong.

One more note. In May and June, when Dem voter registration had bottomed out due to the pandemic and GOPs were outregistering Dems, it was the George Floyd/BLM demonstrations that created a huge Dem voter reg spike.

For those who are interested, this was an early study we released relevant to this subject: insights.targetsmart.com/july-10-2020-h…