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5 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
We all knew Arizona was going to tighten at the end. But I haven't seen anything tonight to suggest that Trump can somehow take it back. Biden campaign keeps making clear to the media that it fully expects to win Arizona.
In the unlikely event that Trump somehow wins Arizona:

- If Biden then hangs on in Nevada as expected, Biden would also need to win either Pennsylvania or Georgia.

- Pennsylvania looks likely for Biden. Georgia is anyone's guess.

In other words, Biden doesn't need Arizona.
I suspect MSNBC and CNN are just trying to use Arizona to keep us tuned in tonight. We'll see.
To be clear, the Associated Press and Fox News already called Arizona for Biden a very long time ago. Neither of them has hedged on this at all.

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More from @PalmerReport

Palmer Report Profile picture
6 Nov
After all the wacky and clueless ways in which the election betting market has swung these past few days, can we finally admit that most of the people who bet money on elections don’t tend to know shit about elections?
For example, people started betting huge on Trump late on Tuesday night, under the mistaken belief that he was ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. But anyone paying proper attention would have known this wasn't the case.
Sports bettings odds tend to pan out, because the people who bet on sports games tend to follow and understand that sport really well. But with election betting, we're very clearly seeing that's not the case.
Read 5 tweets
Palmer Report Profile picture
6 Nov
The fatalists insisted we'd lose. They're being proven wrong, because they're always wrong (fatalists never look at the evidence). Now that Biden is going to win, the fatalists will insist that Trump will somehow just magically remain in office. They'll be wrong about that too.
It's fine to be an optimist or a pessimist, so long as you're basing it on the evidence.

But FATALISTS just make up unlikely or impossible doomsday scenarios in their heads, then insist (without evidence) that the scenarios will absolutely happen. That's a psychological defect.
The fatalists within our ranks have cost us many, many elections over the years, because they convince the rest of us not to bother fighting or trying. I don't intend to let the fatalists cost us an election ever again.
Read 4 tweets
Palmer Report Profile picture
4 Nov
Donald Trump is on track to lose this election by as much as six million votes, yet the pundits are all insisting that this election result is somehow vote in favor of Trumpism. That's total bullshit. Trumpism was rejected by million of votes.
The media is willing to let go of Trump himself. But for the sake of ratings, the media is desperate to keep the ghost of Trumpism around. Yes, a lot of people voted for him. But a whole lot more people voted AGAINST him. Trumpism is a losing strategy. It's done.
"But some republicans won last night by running on Trumpism." Nah. All indications are that the results were simply suppressed by the pandemic and by Trump's cheating schemes. Without those around next time, Trumpish candidates will get wiped out.
Read 4 tweets
Palmer Report Profile picture
4 Nov
Just the fact that Trump easily won Florida by falsely accusing Biden of being a socialist when he obviously wasn’t one, should be all the proof you need that Trump would have blown out Bernie Sanders across the nation. No more self-identified “socialist” candidates. Ever.
I’m not saying we run the “democratic socialist” politicians out of the party. I’m just saying that any of them who want to stay in the party should stop calling themselves “democratic socialists.” It’s the dumbest and most self sabotaging label of all time.
Imagine if certain republican politicians started calling themselves “republican fascists.” We’d laugh at them and thank them for handing us such an easy talking point to use against them. That’s how stupid it is to call yourself a “democratic socialist.”
Read 4 tweets
Palmer Report Profile picture
4 Nov
Right now Joe Biden seemingly has the advantage in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. If he wins all three, he wins the presidency – regardless of Pennsylvania or Georgia.

Biden could potentially win the election by sometime later today.
That's NOT optimism. It's just what the evidence tells us. Mail-in ballots were finally counted in Wisconsin and they put Biden about 18,000 votes ahead there. Good chance they'll do the same in Michigan.

Nevada surprisingly close but Biden seemingly on track to win it.
If Biden only wins two out of three in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, then we'll have to wait for either Georgia (no idea what the deal is there) or Pennsylvania (could take all week).
Read 4 tweets
Palmer Report Profile picture
4 Nov
One definite mistake we made in 2020: we baited ourselves into pouring huge money into passionate red state Senate races (KY, SC, TX) that in hindsight were never in play. If we had dumped that money into a boring Senate race like North Carolina instead, we'd likely have won it.
This continues the trend from 2018 where we fell in love with Beto so we dumped huge money and resources into the Texas Senate race, which in hindsight wasn't winnable, while largely ignoring the more boring Senate races in NV and AZ (which we got lucky and won anyway).
One possible answer for next time: steer all Senate donations into a PAC that distributes the money to Democratic candidates based on their realistic likelihood of winning.
Read 20 tweets

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